CAJ | 학술논문

目的利用网络规模迭加法估计重庆市男男性行为者(MSM)人群规模.方法采用多阶段随机抽样的方法在重庆市开展社区人群的问卷调查,利用网络规模迭加法估计重庆市一般人群的社交网络规模(c),进而根据社交网络规模和调查对象认识MSM的人数及歧视程度,估计和调整重庆市MSM人群的规模.结果重庆市居民的社交网络规模平均为330人,不同区县(P＜0.001)、性别(P＜0.0001)、年龄(P＜0.0001)及文化程度(P＜0.0001)的社交网络规模差异明显；按照性别、年龄、文化程度校正,稳定性分析及异常值剔除后,居民社交网络规模的均值为310人；MSM人群规模为16 767人(95％CI:14 602 ～ 18 932),约占重庆市15 ～ 49岁男性人口数的0.21％.结论网络规模迭加法是一种全新的人群规模估计方法,具有简便和快捷的特性及一定的推广价值.
목적 이용망락규모질가법고계중경시남남성행위자(MSM)인군규모.방법 채용다계단수궤추양적방법재중경시개전사구인군적문권조사,이용망락규모질가법고계중경시일반인군적사교망락규모(c),진이근거사교망락규모화조사대상인식MSM적인수급기시정도,고계화조정중경시MSM인군적규모.결과 중경시거민적사교망락규모평균위330인,불동구현(P＜0.001)、성별(P＜0.0001)、년령(P＜0.0001)급문화정도(P＜0.0001)적사교망락규모차이명현；안조성별、년령、문화정도교정,은정성분석급이상치척제후,거민사교망락규모적균치위310인；MSM인군규모위16 767인(95％CI:14 602 ～ 18 932),약점중경시15 ～ 49세남성인구수적0.21％.결론 망락규모질가법시일충전신적인군규모고계방법,구유간편화쾌첩적특성급일정적추엄개치.
Objective To estimate the size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chongqing municipality.Methods A community based investigation was conducted in Chongqing to estimate the number of personal social network (c value) in the general population through the network scale-up method (NSUM).All the participants were selected by multistage sampling randomly.Factors as c value,the number of acquaintance of MSM and its respective coefficient were used to estimate and adjust the size of MSM in Chongqing.Results The average size of personal social network for Chongqing residents was 330,with differences among place(P＜0.001),sex (P＜0.0001),age (P＜0.0001),education level (P＜0.0001).The size of social network changed into 310 after the adjustment on demography,back estimation and elimination of the outliers.The estimated population size for MSM was 16 767 after the adjustment according to the respective levels,with 95％CI from 14 602 to 18 932,which accounted for 0.21％ of the total number of males,aged from 15 to 49 in Chongqing municipality.Conclusion NSUM was a new method for estimation of population size,which seemed worthy in promoting the practice of NSUM for its efficiency.