中华流行病学杂志
中華流行病學雜誌
중화류행병학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
2013年
5期
478-483
,共6页
王德征%江国虹%张辉%宋桂德%张颖
王德徵%江國虹%張輝%宋桂德%張穎
왕덕정%강국홍%장휘%송계덕%장영
冠心病%空气污染%死亡率%广义可加模型
冠心病%空氣汙染%死亡率%廣義可加模型
관심병%공기오염%사망솔%엄의가가모형
Coronary heart disease%Air pollution%Mortality rate%Generalized additive model
目的 了解天津市大气污染对居民冠心病死亡的影响.方法 采用2001-2009年天津市疾病预防控制中心收集的居民全死因监测数据,同期气象和大气污染资料源自天津市气象局和环境监测中心.采用时间序列的泊松回归广义可加模型分析天津市每日大气污染与居民冠心病死亡危险度,同时控制气象因素、长期趋势、星期几效应以及人口数等混杂因素的影响.结果 2001-2009年天津市冠心病粗死亡率为105.12/10万至167.03/10万,世界标化死亡率为96.07/10万至105.11/10万,呈逐年上升趋势(P=0.000).单因素分析显示大气中二氧化硫(SO2)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化氮(NO2)日均浓度每升高10 μg/m3,冠心病死亡风险的RR值分别增加1.25% (95%CI:0.75%~1.75%)、0.65%(95%CI:0.51%~ 0.79%)和1.04%(95% CI:0.52% ~1.55%)倍;SO2、PM10效应在当日达到最高,NO2效应在3日后达到最高;多因素分析显示,NO2日均浓度对冠心病死亡的风险无统计学意义(P=0.1313),SO2、PM10日均浓度每增加10 μg/m3,冠心病死亡风险的RR值分别增加0.86%(95%CI:0.60% ~ 1.12%)倍和0.40%(95%CI:0.06% ~ 0.75%)倍.低温、低风速、年均人口数增加也是冠心病死亡的危险因素(P<0.05).结论 天津市大气污染可增加人群冠心病死亡风险.
目的 瞭解天津市大氣汙染對居民冠心病死亡的影響.方法 採用2001-2009年天津市疾病預防控製中心收集的居民全死因鑑測數據,同期氣象和大氣汙染資料源自天津市氣象跼和環境鑑測中心.採用時間序列的泊鬆迴歸廣義可加模型分析天津市每日大氣汙染與居民冠心病死亡危險度,同時控製氣象因素、長期趨勢、星期幾效應以及人口數等混雜因素的影響.結果 2001-2009年天津市冠心病粗死亡率為105.12/10萬至167.03/10萬,世界標化死亡率為96.07/10萬至105.11/10萬,呈逐年上升趨勢(P=0.000).單因素分析顯示大氣中二氧化硫(SO2)、可吸入顆粒物(PM10)、二氧化氮(NO2)日均濃度每升高10 μg/m3,冠心病死亡風險的RR值分彆增加1.25% (95%CI:0.75%~1.75%)、0.65%(95%CI:0.51%~ 0.79%)和1.04%(95% CI:0.52% ~1.55%)倍;SO2、PM10效應在噹日達到最高,NO2效應在3日後達到最高;多因素分析顯示,NO2日均濃度對冠心病死亡的風險無統計學意義(P=0.1313),SO2、PM10日均濃度每增加10 μg/m3,冠心病死亡風險的RR值分彆增加0.86%(95%CI:0.60% ~ 1.12%)倍和0.40%(95%CI:0.06% ~ 0.75%)倍.低溫、低風速、年均人口數增加也是冠心病死亡的危險因素(P<0.05).結論 天津市大氣汙染可增加人群冠心病死亡風險.
목적 료해천진시대기오염대거민관심병사망적영향.방법 채용2001-2009년천진시질병예방공제중심수집적거민전사인감측수거,동기기상화대기오염자료원자천진시기상국화배경감측중심.채용시간서렬적박송회귀엄의가가모형분석천진시매일대기오염여거민관심병사망위험도,동시공제기상인소、장기추세、성기궤효응이급인구수등혼잡인소적영향.결과 2001-2009년천진시관심병조사망솔위105.12/10만지167.03/10만,세계표화사망솔위96.07/10만지105.11/10만,정축년상승추세(P=0.000).단인소분석현시대기중이양화류(SO2)、가흡입과립물(PM10)、이양화담(NO2)일균농도매승고10 μg/m3,관심병사망풍험적RR치분별증가1.25% (95%CI:0.75%~1.75%)、0.65%(95%CI:0.51%~ 0.79%)화1.04%(95% CI:0.52% ~1.55%)배;SO2、PM10효응재당일체도최고,NO2효응재3일후체도최고;다인소분석현시,NO2일균농도대관심병사망적풍험무통계학의의(P=0.1313),SO2、PM10일균농도매증가10 μg/m3,관심병사망풍험적RR치분별증가0.86%(95%CI:0.60% ~ 1.12%)배화0.40%(95%CI:0.06% ~ 0.75%)배.저온、저풍속、년균인구수증가야시관심병사망적위험인소(P<0.05).결론 천진시대기오염가증가인군관심병사망풍험.
Objective To quantitatively explore the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin.Methods Mortality data in 2001-2009 were from Tianjin mortality surveillance system operated by the Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention while data related to meteorology and air pollution were from the Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Station,respectively.Generalized Additive Model (GAM) extended Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between air pollution and mortality in Tianjin,under the controlling of time trends,weather,the day of week and population etc.Results The crude coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin increased from year 2001 to 2009,from 105.12/100 000 to 167.03/100 000.The standardized mortality rate of 96.07/100 000 to 105.11/100 000.Air pollutants was more strongly associated with coronary heart disease mortality.By single GAM analysis,a 10 tg/m3 increase in SO2,PM10 and NO2,which accounted for 1.25%(95%CI:0.75%-1.75%),0.65% (95%CI:0.51%-0.79%) and 1.04% (95%CI:0.52%-1.55%) increased in daily mortality.By multiple GAM analysis,a 10 μ g/m3 increase in SO2 and PM10 which accounted for 0.86% (95% CI:0.60%-1.12%) and 0.40% (95% CI:0.06%-0.75%) increased the daily mortality.NO2 was not significantly associated with coronary heart disease mortality rates,but factors as low temperature,low wind speed and population size were (P<0.05).Conclusion Results from this study showed that air pollution was a risk factor for coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin.