CAJ | 학술논문

[导读]应用2005-2011年北京市猩红热报告病例数据,探讨累积和(CUSUM)模型在探测猩红热流行起始时间的应用价值.采用Excel软件建立C1-MILD (C1)、C2-MEDIUM (C2)和C3-ULTRA (C3)模型,比较不同参数组合下C1～C3模型的Youden(YD)指数和检出时间(DT),筛选出各模型的最优参数组合和最佳模型,应用2011年猩红热报告病例数验证在最优参数组合下C1 ～ C3模型的预警效果.结果表明,C1的最优参数组合为k=0.5,H=2σ；C2的最优参数组合为k=0.7,H=2σ；C3的最优参数组合为k=1.1,H=2σ.在最优参数组合下,C1的YD指数为83.0％,DT平均值为0.64周；C2的YD指数为85.4％,DT平均值为1.27周；C3的YD指数为85.1％,DT平均值为1.36周.三种模型中C1的预警功效最好.C1～C3模型均在猩红热流行开始4周内发出预警信号.表明CUSUM模型在探测猩红热流行起始时间时具有较好的功效.
[도독]응용2005-2011년북경시성홍열보고병례수거,탐토루적화(CUSUM)모형재탐측성홍열류행기시시간적응용개치.채용Excel연건건립C1-MILD (C1)、C2-MEDIUM (C2)화C3-ULTRA (C3)모형,비교불동삼수조합하C1～C3모형적Youden(YD)지수화검출시간(DT),사선출각모형적최우삼수조합화최가모형,응용2011년성홍열보고병례수험증재최우삼수조합하C1 ～ C3모형적예경효과.결과표명,C1적최우삼수조합위k=0.5,H=2σ；C2적최우삼수조합위k=0.7,H=2σ；C3적최우삼수조합위k=1.1,H=2σ.재최우삼수조합하,C1적YD지수위83.0％,DT평균치위0.64주；C2적YD지수위85.4％,DT평균치위1.27주；C3적YD지수위85.1％,DT평균치위1.36주.삼충모형중C1적예경공효최호.C1～C3모형균재성홍열류행개시4주내발출예경신호.표명CUSUM모형재탐측성홍열류행기시시간시구유교호적공효.
[Introduction] Based on data related to scarlet fever which was collected from the Disease Surveillance Information Reporting System in Beijing from 2005 to 2011,to explore the efficiency of Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) in detecting the onset of scarlet fever epidcmics.Models as C1-MILD (C1),C2-MEDIUM (C2) and C3-ULTRA (C3) were used.Tools for evaluation as Youden' s index and detection time were calculated to optimize the parameters and optimal model.Data on 2011 scarlet fever surveillance was used to verify the efficacy of these models.C1 (k=0.5,H=2σ),C2 (k=0.7,H=2σ),C3 (k=1.1,H=2σ) appeared to be the optimal parameters among these models.Youden' s index of C1 was 83.0％ and detection time being 0.64 weeks,Youden' s index of C2 was 85.4％ and detection time being 1.27 weeks,Youden' s index of C1 was 85.1％ and detection time being 1.36 weeks.Among the three early warning detection models,C1 had the highest efficacy.Three models all triggered the signals within 4 weeks after the onset of scarlet fever epidemics.The early warning detection model of CUSUM could be used to detect the onset of scarlet fever epidemics,with good efficacy.