CAJ | 학술논문

探讨时间序列分析的自回归移动平均混合模型(ARIMA)在中国道路交通伤害(RTI)预测中的应用.收集1951-2011年中国道路交通伤害资料,进行时间序列分析,建立ARIMA模型.构建得到RTI事故起数ARIMA(1,1,0)预测模型为Yt=eYt-1+0.456▽Yt-1+et,其中,et为随机误差,模型残差序列为白噪声,Ljung-Box检验P＞0.05,统计量无统计学意义,拟合效果良好.应用该模型预测2011年中国RTI事故起数,预测值与实际观测结果相符,实际观测值在预测值95％CI内.用该模型预测2012年中国RTI事故起数,预测值(95％CI)为207 838(107 579 ～401 536).应用ARIMA模型能较好地预测中国道路交通伤害情况.
탐토시간서렬분석적자회귀이동평균혼합모형(ARIMA)재중국도로교통상해(RTI)예측중적응용.수집1951-2011년중국도로교통상해자료,진행시간서렬분석,건립ARIMA모형.구건득도RTI사고기수ARIMA(1,1,0)예측모형위Yt=eYt-1+0.456▽Yt-1+et,기중,et위수궤오차,모형잔차서렬위백조성,Ljung-Box검험P＞0.05,통계량무통계학의의,의합효과량호.응용해모형예측2011년중국RTI사고기수,예측치여실제관측결과상부,실제관측치재예측치95％CI내.용해모형예측2012년중국RTI사고기수,예측치(95％CI)위207 838(107 579 ～401 536).응용ARIMA모형능교호지예측중국도로교통상해정황.
This research aimed to explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of time series analysis in predicting road traffic injury (RTI) in China and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of RTI.Database was created based on the data collected from monitoring sites in China from 1951 to 2011.The ARIMA model was made.Then it was used to predict RTI in 2012.The ARIMA model of the RTI cases was Yt=eYt-1+0.456▽Yt-1+et (et stands for random error).The residual error with 16 lags was white noise and the Ljung-Box test statistic for the model was no statistical significance.The model fitted the data well.True value of RTI cases in 2011 was within 95％ CI of predicted values obtained from present model.The model was used to predict value of RTI cases in 2012,and the predictor (95％CI) was 207 838 (107 579-401 536).The ARIMA model could fit the trend of RTI in China.