CAJ | 학술논문

目的分析广东省传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)运行现状.方法分析CIDARS三种预警方法的预警信号数与响应时间,并比较调整前后的预警信号阳性率、错误预警率.结果 2008年4月21日至2012年12月31日,广东省共发出114 585条预警信号,平均响应时间为1.35 h.其中固定阈值法发出12 394条预警信号,阳性率为7.96％；移动百分位数法发出85727条预警信号,阳性率为0.85％；累积和控制图法发出16 464条预警信号,阳性率为1.82％.报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关(r=0.924,P＜0.01).2010年中国疾病预防控制中心对CIDARS调整后,广东省预警信号阳性率从1.48％升至2.14％,甲型肝炎、细菌性和阿米巴性痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒等8种传染病的错误预警率下降.结论 CIDARS预警信号响应及时,运行状况良好；CIDARS调整后预警效能提高,但一些功能和参数仍需调整和完善.
목적 분석광동성전염병자동예경계통(CIDARS)운행현상.방법 분석CIDARS삼충예경방법적예경신호수여향응시간,병비교조정전후적예경신호양성솔、착오예경솔.결과 2008년4월21일지2012년12월31일,광동성공발출114 585조예경신호,평균향응시간위1.35 h.기중고정역치법발출12 394조예경신호,양성솔위7.96％；이동백분위수법발출85727조예경신호,양성솔위0.85％；루적화공제도법발출16 464조예경신호,양성솔위1.82％.보고병례수여예경신호수정정상관(r=0.924,P＜0.01).2010년중국질병예방공제중심대CIDARS조정후,광동성예경신호양성솔종1.48％승지2.14％,갑형간염、세균성화아미파성이질、상한화부상한등8충전염병적착오예경솔하강.결론 CIDARS예경신호향응급시,운행상황량호；CIDARS조정후예경효능제고,단일사공능화삼수잉수조정화완선.
Objective To analyze the current situation on China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in Guangdong province,China.Methods Earlywarning signals and response time were analyzed by using three approaches of CIDARS.Positive rates of early-warning signals and error early-warning rates prior and after the adjustment,were compared.Results Totally,114 585 early-warning signals appeared,with an average response time of 1.35 hours from April 21,2008 to December 31,2012.There were 12 394 early-warning signals in terms of fixed threshold method with a positive rate of 7.96％.85 727 early-warning signals appeared under the mobile percentile method with a positive rate of 0.85％.There were 16 464 early-warning signals by using accumulation and control chart methods,with a positive rate of 1.82％.Results showed there was a positive correlation between the number of reported cases and the number of early-warning signals (r.=0.924,P＜ 0.01).The overall positive rate in Guangdong province increased from 1.48％ to 2.14％,after the adjustment done by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2010.The error early-warning rates regarding eight infectious diseases including hepatitis A,bacillary or amebic dysentery,both typhoid and paratyphoid fevers had reduced.Conclusion The early-warning signal response appeared timely in CIDARS with good operation.However,despite the improvement on the efficacy of CIDARS,some functions and parameters of the systems still need to be adjusted.