CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨乳腺癌患者发生脑转移的危险因素和利用Logistic回归模型预测乳腺癌脑转移概率.方法对165例乳腺癌患者的年龄、分期、雌激素受体(ER)、孕激素受体(PR)及人类表皮生长因子受体-2(Her-2)评分、月经状态、是否进行辅助化疗、远处第一转移灶、无转移生存期进行分析,建立乳腺癌脑转移预测模型.结果确诊年龄＜ 35岁、腋淋巴结转移数≥4个、ER阴性、Her-2阳性是乳腺癌发生脑转移的独立危险因素(P＜0.05).获得的预测模型的预测能力为0.783±0.037,预测脑转移发生的灵敏度、特异度可分别达0.786和0.765.结论临床可利用该模型预测乳腺癌患者脑转移的概率,且预测概率≥0.75.
목적 탐토유선암환자발생뇌전이적위험인소화이용Logistic회귀모형예측유선암뇌전이개솔.방법 대165례유선암환자적년령、분기、자격소수체(ER)、잉격소수체(PR)급인류표피생장인자수체-2(Her-2)평분、월경상태、시부진행보조화료、원처제일전이조、무전이생존기진행분석,건립유선암뇌전이예측모형.결과 학진년령＜ 35세、액림파결전이수≥4개、ER음성、Her-2양성시유선암발생뇌전이적독립위험인소(P＜0.05).획득적예측모형적예측능력위0.783±0.037,예측뇌전이발생적령민도、특이도가분별체0.786화0.765.결론 림상가이용해모형예측유선암환자뇌전이적개솔,차예측개솔≥0.75.
Objective To investigate the risk factors of brain metastases of breast cancer and predictive ability of the predictive model of brain metastases in breast cancer.Methods All the 165 breast cancer patients were analyzed for age,stage,estrogen receptor (ER),progesterone receptor (PR),human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (Her-2),number of metastasic axillary menstrual status,adjuvant chemotherapy regimen,first sites of metastasis and metastasis-free survival.Results Younger than 35 years old at diagnosis,more than or equal to four metastatic axillary nodes,negative estrogen receptor and postive Herb-2 were independent risk factors associated with brain metastases of breast cancer.The predictive ability of the predictive model,which was measured as area under the curve,was 0.783 ±0.037,and the sensitivity and specificity for predicting the occurrence of brain metastases were 0.786 and 0.765 respectively.Conclusion The predictive model can be used for predicting the occurrence of brain metastases of breast cancer.