CAJ | 학술논문

对卫生资源需要量进行科学预测是制定卫生资源规划的前提和基础.本文对卫生资源预测常用统计模型的适用范围和特点作了总结,引入介绍了自然社会经济预测中常用的各种S型曲线模型并对组合预测模型权重的确定方法进行了梳理归纳,在此基础上提出卫生资源预测研究中,应采取多变量的时间序列模型,或者是在建立预测值的多重线性回归方程和单一时间序列预测模型的基础上构建组合预测模型,以期为相关预测研究提供方法学借鉴.
대위생자원수요량진행과학예측시제정위생자원규화적전제화기출.본문대위생자원예측상용통계모형적괄용범위화특점작료총결,인입개소료자연사회경제예측중상용적각충S형곡선모형병대조합예측모형권중적학정방법진행료소리귀납,재차기출상제출위생자원예측연구중,응채취다변량적시간서렬모형,혹자시재건립예측치적다중선성회귀방정화단일시간서렬예측모형적기출상구건조합예측모형,이기위상관예측연구제공방법학차감.
Scientificly forecasting the health resources is the premise and foundation for making health resource planning.This paper summarized the application scope and characteristics of commonly used statistical models for health resources forecasting,introduced many S type curve prediction models commonly used in natural and social economic fields,hackled and concluded the weight calculation methods of combination forecasting models,and on this basis put forward that multivariable time series model or combination forecasting model based on single time series model and multi-linear regression equation of the predictive value should be set up for forecasting health resources,so as to provide methodological references for related forecasting research.