中华医学科研管理杂志
中華醫學科研管理雜誌
중화의학과연관리잡지
ZHONGHUA YIXUE KEYAN GUANLI ZAZHI CHINESE JOURNAL OF MEDICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH MANAGEMENT
2014年
4期
392-394,403
,共4页
新陈代谢GM(1,1)%线性模型%卫生人力%预测
新陳代謝GM(1,1)%線性模型%衛生人力%預測
신진대사GM(1,1)%선성모형%위생인력%예측
Information renewal GM (1,1) model%Linear models%Health manpower%Forecasting
目的 以护理人员相对数预测为例,探讨新陈代谢GM(1,1)和线性回归耦合模型的在卫生人力资源预测中的应用,提供卫生人力预测方法学参考.方法 采用新陈代谢GM(1,1)和线性回归耦合模型进行预测拟合分析.结果 新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值拟合误差较小,耦合模型预测精度高.结论 耦合模型弥补了灰色系统模型中不含线性因素的不足,又改善了线性回归预测模型中不能表达指数增长的缺陷,模型构建合理可行.
目的 以護理人員相對數預測為例,探討新陳代謝GM(1,1)和線性迴歸耦閤模型的在衛生人力資源預測中的應用,提供衛生人力預測方法學參攷.方法 採用新陳代謝GM(1,1)和線性迴歸耦閤模型進行預測擬閤分析.結果 新陳代謝GM(1,1)模型預測值與實際值擬閤誤差較小,耦閤模型預測精度高.結論 耦閤模型瀰補瞭灰色繫統模型中不含線性因素的不足,又改善瞭線性迴歸預測模型中不能錶達指數增長的缺陷,模型構建閤理可行.
목적 이호리인원상대수예측위례,탐토신진대사GM(1,1)화선성회귀우합모형적재위생인력자원예측중적응용,제공위생인력예측방법학삼고.방법 채용신진대사GM(1,1)화선성회귀우합모형진행예측의합분석.결과 신진대사GM(1,1)모형예측치여실제치의합오차교소,우합모형예측정도고.결론 우합모형미보료회색계통모형중불함선성인소적불족,우개선료선성회귀예측모형중불능표체지수증장적결함,모형구건합리가행.
Objective Taking nurses relative number prediction for example,this paper discussed the application of Information Renewal GM (1,1)—Linear Regression Coupling Model in the prediction of health personnel resources,so as to provide methodology reference for forecasting health personnel.Methods The information renewal GM(1,1) and linear regression coupling model was built and explored to predict and fit analyzing.Results The error between the predictive value that calculated by information renewal GM(1,1) and the actual value was small,and the prediction accuracy of coupling model was high.Conclusion The coupling model not only remedied the defect that grey system model did not including linear factors,but also improved the fact that linear forecasting model could not express exponential growth.Therefore the coupling model was reasonable and feasible.
