CAJ | 학술논문

合同能源管理是解决节能减排问题的有效方式,但其实施和发展受到政治、经济、技术、信用机制等多方面的制约,面临极大的风险.针对目前大部分风险研究中忽视合同能源管理项目本质、理论研究与实践应用相脱节的问题,在分析合同能源管理项目运行流程及各阶段参与主体的基础上,对项目运行中所涉及的风险进行识别,设计了风险评价指标体系.并从合同能源管理项目风险评价的信息不完全性,以及人的认知的不确定性出发,建立了具有广泛适应性的灰色多层次评价模型,形成了适用于我国合同能源管理项目的风险评价体系,并进行了实证研究.
합동능원관리시해결절능감배문제적유효방식,단기실시화발전수도정치、경제、기술、신용궤제등다방면적제약,면림겁대적풍험.침대목전대부분풍험연구중홀시합동능원관리항목본질、이론연구여실천응용상탈절적문제,재분석합동능원관리항목운행류정급각계단삼여주체적기출상,대항목운행중소섭급적풍험진행식별,설계료풍험평개지표체계.병종합동능원관리항목풍험평개적신식불완전성,이급인적인지적불학정성출발,건립료구유엄범괄응성적회색다층차평개모형,형성료괄용우아국합동능원관리항목적풍험평개체계,병진행료실증연구.
Energy performance contracting(EPC)offers an effective way to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. However,affected by politics,economics,technology and credit mechanism,EPC becomes a high-risk undertaking in China. In regard to the negligence of energy performance contracting nature and the discrepancy between theories and practice in previous studies,in this paper,the operational process and the related participants in the EPC projects are focused on and the risk factors are identified,and correspondently the index system for risk assessment is designed. Furthermore,to deal with the assessment information imperfectability of EPC projects and the uncertainties in human cognitive ability,a risk assessment method for EPC projects in China is proposed by using a gray hierarchical evaluation model. Finally,the application of the proposed method is showed with an example.