CAJ | 학술논문

为寻求区域水资源可持续发展的安全阈值.依据天津市的水资源现状,采用尖点突变法对典型缺水的天津市水资源进行供需平衡分析,并结合其行业供需保证率,建立水资源安全阈值分析的尖点突变模型,通过具体分析该模型的状态变量(水资源安全度)、主控制变量(人均水资源量)和次控制变量(水价与需水量耦合),并进而利用突变判别式得出天津市水资源满足行业供需保证率的水资源安全阈值下限(25.08亿 m3),为城市供水、发展规划及水资源的可持续发展提供参考.
위심구구역수자원가지속발전적안전역치.의거천진시적수자원현상,채용첨점돌변법대전형결수적천진시수자원진행공수평형분석,병결합기행업공수보증솔,건립수자원안전역치분석적첨점돌변모형,통과구체분석해모형적상태변량(수자원안전도)、주공제변량(인균수자원량)화차공제변량(수개여수수량우합),병진이이용돌변판별식득출천진시수자원만족행업공수보증솔적수자원안전역치하한(25.08억 m3),위성시공수、발전규화급수자원적가지속발전제공삼고.
@@@@With social and economic development, water shortage caused by the "bottleneck" effect and the ecological consequences of environmental damage becomes more severe. In order to achieve an environmental, economic and social sustainable development, it is required to know a regional water security threshold for a sustainable development. Based on the status of water resources in Tianjin, the authors conduct a balance analysis of water supply and demand in Tianjin city, and develop a water security threshold Cusp Catastrophe Model considering the industry warrant rate on supply and demand using Cusp Catastrophe method. Subsequently, the authors conduct a detailed analysis of the model state variables (water security), the main control variables (per capita water resources) and the second control variables (water and water demand coupled). Therefore, the study obtains the mutation discriminant of water resources which can meet the industry rate of supply and demand in Tianjin. The lowest limit of water security threshold is 2.508 billion m3. The study provides a useful reference for urban water supply, development planning and the sustainable development of water resources.