气候与环境研究
氣候與環境研究
기후여배경연구
CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
2013年
2期
243-250
,共8页
中高纬度印度洋%海表温度(SST)%西北太平洋%夏季台风
中高緯度印度洋%海錶溫度(SST)%西北太平洋%夏季檯風
중고위도인도양%해표온도(SST)%서북태평양%하계태풍
Middle–high latitude Indian Ocean%Sea surface temperature%Western North Pacific%Summer typhoon
从独立性、显著性和滞后性角度分析西北太平洋夏季台风生成数(WNPTYF)与前期中高纬度印度洋海表温度(SST)的关系,结果表明:前期中高纬度印度洋SST与WNPTYF相关显著,且独立于热带东太平洋SST (或ENSO)对WNPTYF影响;中高纬度印度洋SST年际变化对WNPTYF年际变化的指示能力相当或超过热带东太平洋,综合两者的影响预测夏季西北太平洋台风生成数的变化有非常重要的现实意义.进一步的分析表明,中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF影响有明显的滞后性,前期相关显著而同期相关不显著.这种滞后性意味着其前期中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF的影响并不是通过SST的持续性,而很可能是通过南半球大气活动的持续性及异常信号在大气中的传播而影响到夏季的环流,最终影响WNPTYF异常.这种影响机制有待进一步研究.
從獨立性、顯著性和滯後性角度分析西北太平洋夏季檯風生成數(WNPTYF)與前期中高緯度印度洋海錶溫度(SST)的關繫,結果錶明:前期中高緯度印度洋SST與WNPTYF相關顯著,且獨立于熱帶東太平洋SST (或ENSO)對WNPTYF影響;中高緯度印度洋SST年際變化對WNPTYF年際變化的指示能力相噹或超過熱帶東太平洋,綜閤兩者的影響預測夏季西北太平洋檯風生成數的變化有非常重要的現實意義.進一步的分析錶明,中高緯度印度洋SST對WNPTYF影響有明顯的滯後性,前期相關顯著而同期相關不顯著.這種滯後性意味著其前期中高緯度印度洋SST對WNPTYF的影響併不是通過SST的持續性,而很可能是通過南半毬大氣活動的持續性及異常信號在大氣中的傳播而影響到夏季的環流,最終影響WNPTYF異常.這種影響機製有待進一步研究.
종독립성、현저성화체후성각도분석서북태평양하계태풍생성수(WNPTYF)여전기중고위도인도양해표온도(SST)적관계,결과표명:전기중고위도인도양SST여WNPTYF상관현저,차독립우열대동태평양SST (혹ENSO)대WNPTYF영향;중고위도인도양SST년제변화대WNPTYF년제변화적지시능력상당혹초과열대동태평양,종합량자적영향예측하계서북태평양태풍생성수적변화유비상중요적현실의의.진일보적분석표명,중고위도인도양SST대WNPTYF영향유명현적체후성,전기상관현저이동기상관불현저.저충체후성의미착기전기중고위도인도양SST대WNPTYF적영향병불시통과SST적지속성,이흔가능시통과남반구대기활동적지속성급이상신호재대기중적전파이영향도하계적배류,최종영향WNPTYF이상.저충영향궤제유대진일보연구.
@@@@Previous analyses have focused on the relationship between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over tropical oceans and summer typhoons over the western North Pacific (WNPTYF);however, few studies have been conducted on other oceans. To determine the relationship between the WNPTYF and SSTs over the middle–high latitude Indian Ocean (MHIO), their independence, significance, and hysteretic characteristics are examined in this study. The results show that SSTs over MHIO can influence WNPTYF independently when the effect of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not considered. The annual change in SST over MHIO can indicate WNPTYF’s yearly change, in addition to that over the tropical East Pacific, with greater accuracy. Synthesis of the SST anomalies over the two areas is useful when the WNPTYF forecast is abnormal. Results also show that SSTs over MHIO influence WNPTYF in hysteresis, with significant correlation in the previous stage, from January to April, and week correlation at the same time, from June to September. The lagged influence of SSTs over MHIO to WNPTYF indicates that the former affects the latter through continuity of the abnormal atmospheric action over the Southern Hemisphere rather than by SST steadiness. However, for better understanding of this mechanism, further research is required.
