CAJ | 학술논문

我国目前处于快速城市化发展时期,加强土地风险管理对抑制洪水风险具有十分重要的作用.本文建立了太湖流域洪水管理效益分析模型,提出了土地风险管理措施在模型中的表征方式,分析了太湖流域在未来不同社会经济与气候情景下的洪水风险,计算了土地风险管理的减灾效益以及工程措施和土地风险管理相结合的综合效益.分析表明,至2050年,太湖流域未来洪水风险增长4~15倍;土地风险管理可将对应情景的未来洪水风险降低39%~50%;综合措施可将未来风险降低70%~74%.研究方法及成果能够为太湖流域洪水管理决策提供技术支撑和参考.
아국목전처우쾌속성시화발전시기,가강토지풍험관리대억제홍수풍험구유십분중요적작용.본문건립료태호류역홍수관리효익분석모형,제출료토지풍험관리조시재모형중적표정방식,분석료태호류역재미래불동사회경제여기후정경하적홍수풍험,계산료토지풍험관리적감재효익이급공정조시화토지풍험관리상결합적종합효익.분석표명,지2050년,태호류역미래홍수풍험증장4~15배;토지풍험관리가장대응정경적미래홍수풍험강저39%~50%;종합조시가장미래풍험강저70%~74%.연구방법급성과능구위태호류역홍수관리결책제공기술지탱화삼고.
Affected by rapid urbanization and the global warming,the features of flood have been and will be changed significantly in China. Land use risk management is an important measure to restrain the grow?ing flood risk. Taking the Taihu Basin as an example, a flood management benefit assessment model has been established. The future flood risk, the benefit of land use risk management and the integrated flood management measures are evaluated. The results reveal that by 2050 the flood risk in the Taihu Basin will increase by 4~15 times under different climate change and socio-economic scenario. The land use manage?ment will decrease the future flood risk by 39%~50%,while the integrated measures may decrease the fu?ture flood risk by 70%~74%. Based on the results, some suggestions are made for adjusting the strategic planning of flood management in the Taihu Basin.