CAJ | 학술논문

为揭示灰色Verhulst模型的建模精度在系统原始特征序列数乘变换前后的变化规律,降低其建模复杂性,研究了灰色Verhulst模型的建模参数在系统原始特征序列经过数乘变换前后的量化关系以及数乘变换对该模型建模精度的影响程度.研究结果表明,灰色Verhulst模型的建模精度与系统原始数据序列的数乘变换无关.利用数乘变换能降低原始数据的量级,简化建模过程,而不会改变灰色Verhulst模型的建模精度.
위게시회색Verhulst모형적건모정도재계통원시특정서렬수승변환전후적변화규률,강저기건모복잡성,연구료회색Verhulst모형적건모삼수재계통원시특정서렬경과수승변환전후적양화관계이급수승변환대해모형건모정도적영향정도.연구결과표명,회색Verhulst모형적건모정도여계통원시수거서렬적수승변환무관.이용수승변환능강저원시수거적량급,간화건모과정,이불회개변회색Verhulst모형적건모정도.
@@@@To reveal the change rule of the modeling precision of grey Verhulst forecast model with multiplication transformation acting on the sequence of raw data and reduce its modeling complexity, this paper analyzes the parameter characteristics of grey Verhulst model under multiple transformation, and demonstrates its effect on the simulative value and forecasting value by studying the multiple transformation acting on the raw data sequence for building this grey model. The research results indicate that the modeling accuracy of grey Verhulst model is in no relation to multiple transformations of raw data sequences of systems. The conclusion implies that the data level can be reduced, the course of building model can be simplified, but the simulative and predicative results remain unchanged.