南水北调与水利科技
南水北調與水利科技
남수북조여수리과기
SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER
2013年
2期
41-44
,共4页
DMA%夜间最小流量%灰色DGM(1,1)模型%新陈代谢区间预测
DMA%夜間最小流量%灰色DGM(1,1)模型%新陳代謝區間預測
DMA%야간최소류량%회색DGM(1,1)모형%신진대사구간예측
DMA%minimum night flow%grey DGM(1,1) model%metabolic model for interval prediction
针对一个实际独立计量区域(DMA),根据数据采集与监控系统(SCADA )的数据,采用趋势图和灰色关联度分析了DMA入水口的流量特征.然后基于灰色理论建立4个夜间最小流量的灰色模型,对比分析4个模型的模拟和预测精度,确定离散灰色DGM (1,1)模型是此DMA的夜间最小流量的最佳预测模型.灰色DGM (1,1)新陈代谢模型具有很好的动态预测精度,应用灰色DGM (1,1)新陈代谢区间预测方法分析了此DMA区域的夜间最小流量的阈值,从而为DMA的漏失状况起到预警作用.
針對一箇實際獨立計量區域(DMA),根據數據採集與鑑控繫統(SCADA )的數據,採用趨勢圖和灰色關聯度分析瞭DMA入水口的流量特徵.然後基于灰色理論建立4箇夜間最小流量的灰色模型,對比分析4箇模型的模擬和預測精度,確定離散灰色DGM (1,1)模型是此DMA的夜間最小流量的最佳預測模型.灰色DGM (1,1)新陳代謝模型具有很好的動態預測精度,應用灰色DGM (1,1)新陳代謝區間預測方法分析瞭此DMA區域的夜間最小流量的閾值,從而為DMA的漏失狀況起到預警作用.
침대일개실제독립계량구역(DMA),근거수거채집여감공계통(SCADA )적수거,채용추세도화회색관련도분석료DMA입수구적류량특정.연후기우회색이론건립4개야간최소류량적회색모형,대비분석4개모형적모의화예측정도,학정리산회색DGM (1,1)모형시차DMA적야간최소류량적최가예측모형.회색DGM (1,1)신진대사모형구유흔호적동태예측정도,응용회색DGM (1,1)신진대사구간예측방법분석료차DMA구역적야간최소류량적역치,종이위DMA적루실상황기도예경작용.
@@@@Taking an actual district metering area (DMA) as an example ,and based on the data from the supervisory control and data acquisition ,the characteristics of flow discharge at the inlet of DMA are analyzed using the trend chart and grey correlation analysis .Moreover ,4 grey models of minimum night flow (MNF) are developed based on the grey theory ,which suggests that the grey DGM (1 ,1) model is the best model for predicting DMA's MNF when comparing the accuracies of model and prediction results determined by the 4 models .The grey DGM (1 ,1) metabolic model has good dynamic prediction accuracy .The threshold of the DMA's MNF is obtained using the application of the grey DGM (1 ,1) metabolic model for interval prediction ,which has an early warning effect for assessing the leakage condition of DMA .
