CAJ | 학술논문

针对传统风电机组可靠性模型不适合序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的不足,利用基于马尔可夫链的解析方法建立了风电机组的多状态可靠性模型.通过对整个风电场的风况和风机的历史运行数据的统计,得出风机有功输出状态之间的转移率,利用基于马尔可夫链的解析方法求出每个风机状态出现的概率和该状态的平均持续时间.在此基础上,提出了用于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的双重抽样方法.在 Matlab 中编制了风电机组多状态可靠性模型的仿真程序,并与常用的基于单重抽样方法的两状态模型进行比较分析.仿真结果表明了所建多状态可靠性模型和所提双重抽样方法的有效性,该模型能反映故障情况下任意持续时间的风机出力,从而提高了模型的准确性和应用范围.
침대전통풍전궤조가고성모형불괄합서관몽특잡라방진적불족,이용기우마이가부련적해석방법건립료풍전궤조적다상태가고성모형.통과대정개풍전장적풍황화풍궤적역사운행수거적통계,득출풍궤유공수출상태지간적전이솔,이용기우마이가부련적해석방법구출매개풍궤상태출현적개솔화해상태적평균지속시간.재차기출상,제출료용우서관몽특잡라방진적쌍중추양방법.재 Matlab 중편제료풍전궤조다상태가고성모형적방진정서,병여상용적기우단중추양방법적량상태모형진행비교분석.방진결과표명료소건다상태가고성모형화소제쌍중추양방법적유효성,해모형능반영고장정황하임의지속시간적풍궤출력,종이제고료모형적준학성화응용범위.
A multistage reliability model of wind turbine is built utilizing a systematic method based on Markov chain approach, considering the drawback of the traditional wind turbine reliability model in sequential Monte Carlo Simulation. The probability of occurrence and duration of each state can be obtained using the state transition rate between each output power state of wind turbine calculated out with the regional wind regime of wind farm and operation historical data of wind turbine. On this basis, the double sampling method for the sequential Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. The simulation program for multistage reliability model of wind turbine is compiled. Then it is compared with the commonly used two-state model based on a single sampling method. Simulation results verify the feasibility of the proposed model based on Markov method. It can reflect accurately the output power of the wind turbine of any duration under fault conditions, improve the accuracy and expand the application range of the simulation model.