CAJ | 학술논문

人口老龄化是人口发展领域的基本现象,也是一项世界性课题,包括中国在内的世界主要国家大部分已经进入老龄化社会.南京人口老龄化程度虽然总体上优于全国平均水平,但是南京当前的人口年龄结构为老龄化问题的加速恶化埋下了伏笔.人口老龄化既可能从减少劳动力和资本供给、减少消费、减少创新投入等方面对产业结构调整产生消极影响,也可能从增加服务需求、理性消费、激励人力资本投资、降低碳排放等方面对产业结构调整产生积极影响.因此,面对这种“未富先老”的发展背景,应理性分析人口老龄化对于产业结构调整的双向影响,系统探索老龄化背景下产业结构调整的总体思路,特别是要积极扶持发展老龄产业、加强劳动替代性技术创新、以知识技术密集型产业替代劳动密集型产业、注重老年人力资源开发.
인구노령화시인구발전영역적기본현상,야시일항세계성과제,포괄중국재내적세계주요국가대부분이경진입노령화사회.남경인구노령화정도수연총체상우우전국평균수평,단시남경당전적인구년령결구위노령화문제적가속악화매하료복필.인구노령화기가능종감소노동력화자본공급、감소소비、감소창신투입등방면대산업결구조정산생소겁영향,야가능종증가복무수구、이성소비、격려인력자본투자、강저탄배방등방면대산업결구조정산생적겁영향.인차,면대저충“미부선로”적발전배경,응이성분석인구노령화대우산업결구조정적쌍향영향,계통탐색노령화배경하산업결구조정적총체사로,특별시요적겁부지발전노령산업、가강노동체대성기술창신、이지식기술밀집형산업체대노동밀집형산업、주중노년인력자원개발.
@@@@The aging of population is the basic phenomenon of population development area,it is also a world problem,most of the world’s major countries including China have entered the aging society.The degree of population aging in Nanjing is better than the national average as a whole,but Nanjing’s current population age structure foreshadow for accelerating popula--tion aging problem.The population aging may reduce labor and capital supply,reduce consumption and innovation invest--ment,so it has a negative impact on the adjustment of industrial structure.The population aging may also increase service de--mand and rational consumption,inspire human capital investment,reduce carbon emissions,so it has a positive impact on the industrial structure adjustment.Therefore,in the face of this“get old before it gets rich”,it should be analyzed the bidi--rectional effects of population aging on the industrial structure adjustment rationally,explore the general idea of the adjustment of industrial structure under the background of population aging systematically,especially support the development of aging in--dustry actively,strengthen technological innovation that can substitute for labor,emphasize on the development of elderly hu--man resource.