CAJ | 학술논문

边坡可靠性研究从静力学领域逐步拓展到更具一般性的动力学领域是研究不断深化的必然结果.当前国际上对边坡动力可靠性的研究正处于起步阶段,现有的边坡动力可靠性评价理论和方法均是从静力可靠性理论体系发展而来.通过剖析可靠性问题求解的理论构架,将边坡静力可靠性分析方法分为6种嵌套模式,指出其中4种可以拓展到动力学领域.明确了高性能计算在动力可靠性分析中的地位,依据计算复杂性理论对算法的效率做了定量的研究,给出了静力和动力条件下的时间复杂度.对近13年来(2000-2012年)SCI-E数据库收录的46篇文献进行了统计分析.在此基础上,将边坡动力可靠性研究存在的问题归纳为3个方面:①对不确定性考虑不足.②边坡体系可靠度求解方法所存在的争论对动力学领域的影响显著.③计算效率问题已成为制约动力可靠性研究的技术瓶颈之一.指出未来边坡动力可靠性研究的发展趋势是:①对不确定性的考虑将趋向全面和深入;在岩土体物理力学性质的描述上,运用随机场理论来刻画空间变异性的研究将逐步受到重视;且模糊性与随机性将获得深入的整合.②针对边坡体系可靠度求解方法的争论,今后的发展方向之一是致力于从理论上实现完备的证明,结束关于边坡体系可靠度求解方法的争论;方向之二是在具体实践上,朝着精细化、复杂化的方向发展,将会更为广泛地与新兴的群体智能优化算法相结合.③在解决动力可靠性分析的计算效率问题上,以Monte Carlo法内嵌响应面法的模式具有良好的发展前景,通过吸收非线性学科的相关优秀算法作为高效率的响应面代理手段,将会极大地推动边坡动力可靠性研究的发展.
변파가고성연구종정역학영역축보탁전도경구일반성적동역학영역시연구불단심화적필연결과.당전국제상대변파동력가고성적연구정처우기보계단,현유적변파동력가고성평개이론화방법균시종정력가고성이론체계발전이래.통과부석가고성문제구해적이론구가,장변파정력가고성분석방법분위6충감투모식,지출기중4충가이탁전도동역학영역.명학료고성능계산재동력가고성분석중적지위,의거계산복잡성이론대산법적효솔주료정량적연구,급출료정력화동력조건하적시간복잡도.대근13년래(2000-2012년)SCI-E수거고수록적46편문헌진행료통계분석.재차기출상,장변파동력가고성연구존재적문제귀납위3개방면:①대불학정성고필불족.②변파체계가고도구해방법소존재적쟁론대동역학영역적영향현저.③계산효솔문제이성위제약동력가고성연구적기술병경지일.지출미래변파동력가고성연구적발전추세시:①대불학정성적고필장추향전면화심입;재암토체물리역학성질적묘술상,운용수궤장이론래각화공간변이성적연구장축보수도중시;차모호성여수궤성장획득심입적정합.②침대변파체계가고도구해방법적쟁론,금후적발전방향지일시치력우종이론상실현완비적증명,결속관우변파체계가고도구해방법적쟁론;방향지이시재구체실천상,조착정세화、복잡화적방향발전,장회경위엄범지여신흥적군체지능우화산법상결합.③재해결동력가고성분석적계산효솔문제상,이Monte Carlo법내감향응면법적모식구유량호적발전전경,통과흡수비선성학과적상관우수산법작위고효솔적향응면대리수단,장회겁대지추동변파동력가고성연구적발전.
@@@@The evolution of slope reliability research from statics to even more universal dynamics is an inevitable result of its development. At present, the research on dynamic reliability of slope is in its infancy, and the available evaluation theory and methods are evolved from the static reliability theoretical system of slope. Based on the analysis of the theoretical framework of a reliability problem, the methods of static reliability analysis are divided into six nested modes, four of which are compatible with the dynamic reliability problems. This paper clarifies the significance of the high-performance computing in reliability analysis. A quantitative study of the efficiency of the algorithm is achieved based on the theory of computational complexity. The time complexities of these six modes are proposed under static and dynamic conditions. Based on the statistical analysis of 46 SCI-E citations within 2000-2012, the problems of present slope dynamic reliability research are summarized into three aspects: ① The consideration of uncertainty is inadequate. ② The controversy regarding slope system reliability methods has a significant effect on the dynamic field. ③Computational efficiency has become one of the technical bottlenecks of restricting the further study of dynamic reliability. Correspondingly, the future development trend can be summarized as follows: ① Consideration of uncertainty will trend to more comprehensive and in-depth methodology. The use of random field theory to characterize the spatial variability of mechanical properties of the rock and soil will gradually be given more serious attention. In addition, the fuzziness and randomness will receive in-depth integration. ② Addressing the controversy issue of slope system reliability methods, a strong proof of theory is desired. In future practice, more precise and more complicated approaches as well as the emerging swarm intelligence optimization algorithms will be widely used. ③ For the issue of computational efficiency for dynamic reliability analysis, the embedded mode that combines response surface method and Monte Carlo simulation method has an excellent prospect of developing. By using the appropriate and excellent algorithms from nonlinear disciplines as a high-efficiency surrogate for the response surface, the development of the slope dynamic reliability research will be greatly promoted.