CAJ | 학술논문

应用湖南多部雷达和探空资料、中小尺度自动气象站资料、南岳高山站逐时观测资料及LAPS局地分析资料,对2013年3月19日湖南首场致灾性强对流天气过程的成因进行综合分析,并探讨强冰雹和雷暴大风预警着眼点及其可预警性.结果表明:强对流发生前,近地面晴空辐射增温、对流不稳定层结、强的垂直风切变、强温度梯度直减率以及近地层较好的水汽条件为强对流风暴发生发展提供了良好的潜势条件;中低层冷平流、地面中尺度辐合线、能量锋和露点锋以及近地面层弱辐散、中低层强辐合、高层强辐散的动力耦合结构是强对流发生的有利天气背景,中低层冷空气是这次强对流过程的触发机制;强对流风暴的前期以超级单体风暴和多单体风暴为主,超级单体风暴东移北上过程中与湖南西部不断新生的对流回波结合后发展成飑线,飑线维持、发展过程中出现“弓形”回波、中层径向辐合(MARC)、低层辐散、速度大值区等特征;在短临预警服务中,中低层明显的钩状回波结构、持续偏高的反射率因子和垂直积分液态水含量(VIL)值为靖州强冰雹预警的发布提供了有效依据,而低仰角距离地面1 km内的径向速度大值区(大于20 m·s-1)则为道县雷暴大风预警提供重要参考.
응용호남다부뢰체화탐공자료、중소척도자동기상참자료、남악고산참축시관측자료급LAPS국지분석자료,대2013년3월19일호남수장치재성강대류천기과정적성인진행종합분석,병탐토강빙박화뇌폭대풍예경착안점급기가예경성.결과표명:강대류발생전,근지면청공복사증온、대류불은정층결、강적수직풍절변、강온도제도직감솔이급근지층교호적수기조건위강대류풍폭발생발전제공료량호적잠세조건;중저층랭평류、지면중척도복합선、능량봉화로점봉이급근지면층약복산、중저층강복합、고층강복산적동력우합결구시강대류발생적유리천기배경,중저층랭공기시저차강대류과정적촉발궤제;강대류풍폭적전기이초급단체풍폭화다단체풍폭위주,초급단체풍폭동이북상과정중여호남서부불단신생적대류회파결합후발전성박선,박선유지、발전과정중출현“궁형”회파、중층경향복합(MARC)、저층복산、속도대치구등특정;재단림예경복무중,중저층명현적구상회파결구、지속편고적반사솔인자화수직적분액태수함량(VIL)치위정주강빙박예경적발포제공료유효의거,이저앙각거리지면1 km내적경향속도대치구(대우20 m·s-1)칙위도현뇌폭대풍예경제공중요삼고.
@@@@Using data from various radars in Hunan and radiosonde data, meso-and micro-scale observations of automatic weather stations, meteorological records at the Nanyue Mountain station and LAPS data, this paper analyzes the causes of the first severe convective weather process causing disaster over Hunan on 19 March 2013, and then explores the early warning focus and predictability for strong hail and thun-derstorm gale. The results show that before the process, intense warming near the ground by sky radiation, instable convection stratification, strong vertical wind shear, strong temperature gradient lapse rate and abundant water vapor near the ground provide good potential conditions for the occurrence and development of the severe convective storm. All the factors including cold advection in the mid-and low-level, surface mesoscale convergence line, energy front and dew point front as well as the dynamical coupling of weak divergence near the ground, strong convergence in the mid-and low-level and divergence in the upper level form the main trigger mechanism of the severe convection. The pro-phase of this severe convective storm is characterized by supercell storms and multi-cell storms. While moving eastwards and jumping north-wards, the supercell storm combines with convective echo generating continuously in western Hunan and develops into a squall line;at the same time, while the maintenance and development of squall line, bow-shaped echo, middle-level radial convergence, low-level divergence and great value zone of velocity are seen in the radar chart. In the nowcasting services, the obvious hook-shaped echo structure in the mid-and low-level, continued high reflectivity factor and vertical integrated liquid (VIL) provide an effective basis for the early warning issue of heavy hail in Jingzhou, but the great value zone of radial velocity (>20 m·s-1) at low angle (within 1 km from the surface) provides important reference for the early warning issue of thunderstorm gale in Daoxian.