CAJ | 학술논문

以吉林省为例,利用该省1952—2010年森林火灾(简称林火,下同)次数资料和全省气象站资料,分析该省林火次数时间变化特征及其与气象条件的关系,利用水分平衡法和统计回归方法建立林火次数气候影响评价模型并对其进行比较;在此基础上,利用水分平衡模型建立林火指数时间变化序列.结果表明,林火次数与降水、相对湿度、气温、风速等气象因子关系密切,水分平衡模型的气候影响评价效果优于统计回归模型;近62 a来吉林省林火指数和次数均呈增加趋势,表明气候变化有利于林火发生;2000年之后进入春、秋季林火多发期.
이길림성위례,이용해성1952—2010년삼림화재(간칭림화,하동)차수자료화전성기상참자료,분석해성림화차수시간변화특정급기여기상조건적관계,이용수분평형법화통계회귀방법건립림화차수기후영향평개모형병대기진행비교;재차기출상,이용수분평형모형건립림화지수시간변화서렬.결과표명,림화차수여강수、상대습도、기온、풍속등기상인자관계밀절,수분평형모형적기후영향평개효과우우통계회귀모형;근62 a래길림성림화지수화차수균정증가추세,표명기후변화유리우림화발생;2000년지후진입춘、추계림화다발기.
@@@@Using the original data of forest fires frequency from 1952-2010 and the weather stations data in Jilin province, an analysis is made on the temporal variations of forest fires frequency and its relationship with meteorological conditions. The moisture balance method and statistical regression analysis method are used to establish climate impact assessment models of forest fires frequency respectively, and then one model is contrasted with another one. On this basis, a time variation series of forest fire meteorological indexes is established by using moisture balance model. The results show that forest fires frequency is closely related to precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed and other meteorological factors, and the climate impact assessment result of the moisture balance model is better than that of the statis-tical regression model. Both index and frequency of forest fires in Jilin province are in increase trend in the latest 62 years, which show cli-mate change is in favor of the occurrence of forest fires. After 2000 forest fires in spring and autumn occur frequently in Jilin.