CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用包含消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的消费者信心指数的月度时间序列数据,利用VAR模型方法分析了消费者满意指数和预期指数的影响关系,同时,分析了它们与物价、消费、储蓄、股票市场的相互影响关系.分析结果显示:消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数有影响关系,滞后一期消费者预期指数对当期消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数都有正的影响,滞后二期的预期指数对当期满意指数有负的影响;物价指数对消费者信心指数的影响有明显的滞后,当期物价指数对下一期的满意指数和预期指数都有正的影响,对于下两期的有负的影响;无论从长期角度还是短期角度看,存款总额对消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的影响都是正向的.同时,本文验证了消费者信心指数的信号引导功能,消费者预期指数有消费引导功能,其提升会导致以后的消费总额的增长;储蓄增长有助于信心指数的增长;股票市场对信心指数影响不显著.
본문운용포함소비자예기지수、소비자만의지수적소비자신심지수적월도시간서렬수거,이용VAR모형방법분석료소비자만의지수화예기지수적영향관계,동시,분석료타문여물개、소비、저축、고표시장적상호영향관계.분석결과현시:소비자만의지수화소비자예기지수유영향관계,체후일기소비자예기지수대당기소비자만의지수화소비자예기지수도유정적영향,체후이기적예기지수대당기만의지수유부적영향;물개지수대소비자신심지수적영향유명현적체후,당기물개지수대하일기적만의지수화예기지수도유정적영향,대우하량기적유부적영향;무론종장기각도환시단기각도간,존관총액대소비자예기지수、소비자만의지수적영향도시정향적.동시,본문험증료소비자신심지수적신호인도공능,소비자예기지수유소비인도공능,기제승회도치이후적소비총액적증장;저축증장유조우신심지수적증장;고표시장대신심지수영향불현저.
In this paper, using the VAR model, the author analyzed the relationship between the Index of Consumer Expec-tations (ICE) and Index of Current Economic Conditions (ICC), standing on the published monthly data of time series of ICE and ICC, and at the same time, the author gave the analysis of the mutual impact among Consumer Price Index (CPI), Consumption, Savings, the Stock Market. Analysis showed: ICE and ICC have affect relations, a hysteresis of ICE has positive impacts both on ICE and ICC, second period hysteresis of ICE has a negative impact on current ICC. CPI has a noticeable lag effect, current CPI has positive impact on both future ICE and ICC, but negative impact on next-two-period data of ICE and ICC. Regardless from the long-term point of view or short-term point of view, the total deposits have positive impacts both on ICE and ICC. This paper also verified the guide function of the Consumer Confidence Index, ICE can guide consumer expectations which will lead to the growth of the total spending in the future. The growth of savings contribute to the growth of the confidence index. The stock mar-ket had no significant effect on ICE and ICC.