生物灾害科学
生物災害科學
생물재해과학
Jiangxi Plant Protection
2013年
1期
86-89
,共4页
稻纵卷叶螟%发生程度%预测模型
稻縱捲葉螟%髮生程度%預測模型
도종권협명%발생정도%예측모형
rice leaf roller [Cnaphalocrocis medinalis (Guenée)]%occurrence level% prediction model
通过对达县2000年以来水稻纵卷叶螟发生为害程度影响因子的分析,筛选出影响稻纵卷叶螟发生为害程度的主导因子,运用多元逐步回归方法,建立适合达州地区水稻纵卷叶螟主害代发生为害程度的预测模型.经回测检验,各模型的历史符合率达81.82%~90.91%,且2011—2012年应用效果较好.
通過對達縣2000年以來水稻縱捲葉螟髮生為害程度影響因子的分析,篩選齣影響稻縱捲葉螟髮生為害程度的主導因子,運用多元逐步迴歸方法,建立適閤達州地區水稻縱捲葉螟主害代髮生為害程度的預測模型.經迴測檢驗,各模型的歷史符閤率達81.82%~90.91%,且2011—2012年應用效果較好.
통과대체현2000년이래수도종권협명발생위해정도영향인자적분석,사선출영향도종권협명발생위해정도적주도인자,운용다원축보회귀방법,건립괄합체주지구수도종권협명주해대발생위해정도적예측모형.경회측검험,각모형적역사부합솔체81.82%~90.91%,차2011—2012년응용효과교호.
@@@@Dominant factors to affect occurrence and damage level of the rice leaf roller have been obtained since 2000. By analysis of the impact factors to occurrence and damage level of the rice leaf roller. Adopting the multivariate regression method, the prediction model of occurrence and damage level of the rice leaf roller was set up, which was suitable to be used in Dazhou Rice Areas. By repeated testing in the rice fields, the coincidence rate was 81.82%~90.91%, and with nice application effect from 2011 to 2012.
