CAJ | 학술논문

本文主要利用实际业务模式的预报结果和丰富的历史资料对乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖和鄂霍次克海三个阻塞高压活动关键区夏季平均的500 hPa高度场进行动力-统计跨季度预测实验,其结果显示该方法能在一定程度上减小模式预报误差,提高预报技巧,显示出了良好的业务应用前景.此外,敏感性实验显示,相似指标和相似年选取个数都对预测结果有显著影响.
본문주요이용실제업무모식적예보결과화봉부적역사자료대오랍이산、패가이호화악곽차극해삼개조새고압활동관건구하계평균적500 hPa고도장진행동력-통계과계도예측실험,기결과현시해방법능재일정정도상감소모식예보오차,제고예보기교,현시출료량호적업무응용전경.차외,민감성실험현시,상사지표화상사년선취개수도대예측결과유현저영향.
The blocking high in Eurasia mid-high latitudes (EMHBH) is one of the leading members of East Asian summer monsoon circulation system, which also has a crucial influence on the summer flood/drought in China, especially in the region of Yangtze River. However, the objective quantitative prediction of EMHBH is an urgent issue we are facing and also a complicated problem in the current short-term climate prediction. This paper, by using the dynamical and statistical prediction (DSP) methods and based on the forecast data of the numerical modal(CGCM) and the abundant historical observations, has carried out prediction experiments of the above three blocking high regions in the summer averaged 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The results show that the DSP methods can diminish the prediction errors to some extent, which is also suitable for operational application. In addition, sensitivity tests show that the selection of the number of similar targets or similar yeas has significant influences on the prediction results.