CAJ | 학술논문

目的应用 Cox 比例风险回归模型构建缺血性脑卒中复发的预测模型.方法调查2008年1月1日~2009年12月31日确诊的连续性初发缺血性脑卒中患者资料,并随访患者的复发情况,于2010年6月30日完成随访工作.应用 Kaplan-Meier 法进行复发率分析,应用 Cox 比例风险回归模型对影响患者复发的危险因素进行单因素和多因素分析,建立复发模型及个体预后指数.结果随访结束共有79例患者复发.年龄(X1)、高血压史(X2)、家族卒中史(X3)、总胆固醇(X4)、病情进展(X5)、Essen 卒中风险量表(ESRS)评分(X6)是影响患者复发的独立危险因素.据此建立的复发模型的个体预后指数(PI)为:PI=0.025X1+0.681X2+0.973X3+0.395X4+0.636X5+0.283X6.应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析,得到以2.289为截断点,此时模型的灵敏度为0.731,特异度为0.795.结论应用 Cox 比例风险回归模型成功建立复发模型及个体预后指数方程.
목적응용 Cox 비례풍험회귀모형구건결혈성뇌졸중복발적예측모형.방법조사2008년1월1일~2009년12월31일학진적련속성초발결혈성뇌졸중환자자료,병수방환자적복발정황,우2010년6월30일완성수방공작.응용 Kaplan-Meier 법진행복발솔분석,응용 Cox 비례풍험회귀모형대영향환자복발적위험인소진행단인소화다인소분석,건립복발모형급개체예후지수.결과수방결속공유79례환자복발.년령(X1)、고혈압사(X2)、가족졸중사(X3)、총담고순(X4)、병정진전(X5)、Essen 졸중풍험량표(ESRS)평분(X6)시영향환자복발적독립위험인소.거차건립적복발모형적개체예후지수(PI)위:PI=0.025X1+0.681X2+0.973X3+0.395X4+0.636X5+0.283X6.응용수시자공작특정(ROC)곡선분석,득도이2.289위절단점,차시모형적령민도위0.731,특이도위0.795.결론응용 Cox 비례풍험회귀모형성공건립복발모형급개체예후지수방정.
@@@@Objective To establish the prediction model for ischemic stroke recurrence. Methods Consecutive patients with ischemic stroke from January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2009 were followed up until June 30th, 2010. The rate of recurrence were described with Kaplan-Meier curve, and the factors associated with recurrence were analyzed with monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression. Results There were 79 cases relapsed during the follow-up. The independent risk factors associated with recurrence were age(X), history of hypertension (X2), family stroke history (X3), total cholesterol (X4), disease progression (X5), total scores of Essen stroke risk score (X6). The personal prognosis index (PI) for predicting recurrence was as: PI=0.025X1+0.681X2+0.973X3+0.395X4+0.636X5+0.283X6. As the re-ceiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed, when the cut-off point of PI was 2.289, the sensitivity of the model was 0.731 and spec-ificity was 0.795. Conclusion The model for predicting recurrence of ischemic stroke was established.