CAJ | 학술논문

在减排成本估算方面,已有研究间的差异比较明显.采用MAC方法,测算比较多种情形下的减排成本表明:若2006-2010年投入2万亿元,则2011-2020年总减排成本为2畅25万亿元(减排40%)和2畅78万亿元(减排45%);若减排成本为48畅08元/tCO2,则2011-2020年总减排成本为13668畅11亿元(减排45%).此外,资金的时间价值和通货膨胀严重影响减排成本.这一研究结果更能反映我国的实际情况,对减排资金的投入具有一定的指导意义.
재감배성본고산방면,이유연구간적차이비교명현.채용MAC방법,측산비교다충정형하적감배성본표명:약2006-2010년투입2만억원,칙2011-2020년총감배성본위2창25만억원(감배40%)화2창78만억원(감배45%);약감배성본위48창08원/tCO2,칙2011-2020년총감배성본위13668창11억원(감배45%).차외,자금적시간개치화통화팽창엄중영향감배성본.저일연구결과경능반영아국적실제정황,대감배자금적투입구유일정적지도의의.
The current studies concerning the estimation of emission cost differentiate one another to a large degree .This paper calculates and compares the abatement cost under several different circumstances by adopting the MAC_method and the research shows that if we had invested 2 000 billion Yuan during the period from 2006 to 2010 ,the total abatement cost in the next period , from 2011 to 2020 would be 2 250 billion Yuan (40% reduction) or 2 780 billion Yuan (45% re-duction) .If the abatement cost was 48 .08 Yuan per ton of CO2 ,the total abatement cost of the period from 2011 to 2020 would be 1 366 .811 billion Yuan (45% reduction) .Besides ,the capi-tal’s time value and inflation may influence the abatement cost immensely .As is manifested ,the result of this research is more reliable in reflecting China’s current situation ,and is more instruc-tive in the investment of emission abatement .