巢湖学院学报
巢湖學院學報
소호학원학보
CHAOHU TEACHERS COLLEGE JOURNAL
2012年
6期
1-7
,共7页
BP 神经网络%Elman 神经网络%灰色神经网络%支持向量机%组合预测
BP 神經網絡%Elman 神經網絡%灰色神經網絡%支持嚮量機%組閤預測
BP 신경망락%Elman 신경망락%회색신경망락%지지향량궤%조합예측
BP neural network%Elman neural network%Grey neural network%SVM%Combination Forecast
预测问题一直是科学与管理领域研究的热点,备受广大科技工作者的关注.为了解决单一预测模型在预测问题上的缺点和误差控制问题,本文提出一种组合预测模型——以误差绝对值和达到最小为准则的线性组合预测模型.这种模型以误差绝对值和达到最小为依据,计算出每个单一模型在预测结果中所占的权重,建立组合预测模型.该组合预测模型较好的利用了神经网络与支持向量机在多影响因子下训练的优势,进一步提高预测精度.将其应用于合肥市房地产价格预测,可以达到理想效果.
預測問題一直是科學與管理領域研究的熱點,備受廣大科技工作者的關註.為瞭解決單一預測模型在預測問題上的缺點和誤差控製問題,本文提齣一種組閤預測模型——以誤差絕對值和達到最小為準則的線性組閤預測模型.這種模型以誤差絕對值和達到最小為依據,計算齣每箇單一模型在預測結果中所佔的權重,建立組閤預測模型.該組閤預測模型較好的利用瞭神經網絡與支持嚮量機在多影響因子下訓練的優勢,進一步提高預測精度.將其應用于閤肥市房地產價格預測,可以達到理想效果.
예측문제일직시과학여관리영역연구적열점,비수엄대과기공작자적관주.위료해결단일예측모형재예측문제상적결점화오차공제문제,본문제출일충조합예측모형——이오차절대치화체도최소위준칙적선성조합예측모형.저충모형이오차절대치화체도최소위의거,계산출매개단일모형재예측결과중소점적권중,건립조합예측모형.해조합예측모형교호적이용료신경망락여지지향량궤재다영향인자하훈련적우세,진일보제고예측정도.장기응용우합비시방지산개격예측,가이체도이상효과.
Forecasting problems,a hot issue in fields of science and management,has been always concerned by scientists and technologists. In order to solve the disadvantages of the single forecast model and error control's problem, this paper presents a combination forecast model —— Error sum of absolute values of minimum criteria for the linear combination forecas model This model take the minimum error absolute values as the basis, calculate for each single model's weight in predicting outcome.Then,establish a combination forecasting model. The model has better advantage by combination of neural network and support vector machine in multiple factors' training, further improve the accuracy of prediction. Its application in Hefei City house price forecast, achieve the desired effect.
