CAJ | 학술논문

非常规突发事件情景构建和推演是实现“情景-应对”型应急管理模式的关键问题之一.分析突发事件应急管理特点及研究现状基础上,构建了非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系,具体包括关键要素及其作用机理提取与表示、多源信息融合下的应急情景链构建、面向“情景-应对”的应急情景推演和情景推演结果评判与应对实效评估四个部分.该方法体系及划分有助于合理展开“情景-应对”型应急管理关键问题的研究,可以促进“情景-应对”型应急管理模式在应急管理实践中的实现,为政府部门制定应急决策提供一定的决策支持.
비상규돌발사건정경구건화추연시실현“정경-응대”형응급관리모식적관건문제지일.분석돌발사건응급관리특점급연구현상기출상,구건료비상규돌발사건정경구건여추연방법체계,구체포괄관건요소급기작용궤리제취여표시、다원신식융합하적응급정경련구건、면향“정경-응대”적응급정경추연화정경추연결과평판여응대실효평고사개부분.해방법체계급화분유조우합리전개“정경-응대”형응급관리관건문제적연구,가이촉진“정경-응대”형응급관리모식재응급관리실천중적실현,위정부부문제정응급결책제공일정적결책지지.
Scenario construction and deduction of unconventional emergencies is one of the key issues in the“Scenario-Response” type emergency management model. After analyzing the characteristics of emergency management and the extant related studies, we build a methodology of scenario construction and deduction for emergencies, which includes four parts:the extraction and representation methods of the key emergency elements and the mechanisms among the elements; scenario construction methods under multi-source information fusion, scenario deduction methods based on “Scenario-Response”, and the assessment methods of scenario deduction results and actual effects. The proposed system is beneficial to solve the key issues of “Scenario-Response”emergency management, which can promote the implementation of “Scenario-Response” methodology in emergency management practice and improve the decision support for governments’ responses to unconventional emergencies.