CAJ | 학술논문

20世纪以来,全球气候变暖趋势已得到证实,对生态系统和人居环境造成的影响备受瞩目,气候变化无疑将对建筑能源需求产生重大影响.基于IPCC最新预测结果,选择我国3个典型气候区代表城市——北京、上海和广州,采用统计降尺度方法-Mor-phing,在现有典型气象年的基础上,结合地球气候模式(GCM)在气候变化中间稳定路径(RCP4.5)和高端路径(RCP8.5)下的大尺度预测结果,进行未来天气参数预测.针对每个城市、每个气候变化路径各生成5个未来时间段(2000年~2017年、2018年~2035年、2036年~2053年、2054年~2071年和2072年~2089年)的TMY逐时天气参数文件,用于典型建筑模型进行全年能耗模拟,预估典型城市建筑能源需求在未来100年里的变化趋势.
20세기이래,전구기후변난추세이득도증실,대생태계통화인거배경조성적영향비수촉목,기후변화무의장대건축능원수구산생중대영향.기우IPCC최신예측결과,선택아국3개전형기후구대표성시——북경、상해화엄주,채용통계강척도방법-Mor-phing,재현유전형기상년적기출상,결합지구기후모식(GCM)재기후변화중간은정로경(RCP4.5)화고단로경(RCP8.5)하적대척도예측결과,진행미래천기삼수예측.침대매개성시、매개기후변화로경각생성5개미래시간단(2000년~2017년、2018년~2035년、2036년~2053년、2054년~2071년화2072년~2089년)적TMY축시천기삼수문건,용우전형건축모형진행전년능모모의,예고전형성시건축능원수구재미래100년리적변화추세.
Concerned by tremendous effects on ecosystem and environment, global warming trend has been proved since the turn of 20th century. Undoubtedly climate change could have significant influence on building energy demand. Based on the latest predictions by the In-tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it describes the integration of predictive climate change calculated by selected global cli-mate model (GCM) under future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) into existing Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) for future weather data prediction. Future hourly weather files for three representative cities in China (Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) and five future periods (2000-2017, 2018-2035, 2036-2053, 2054-2071 and 2072-2089) are generated by a statistical downscaling method - Morphing. These fu-ture TMY weather files are used in different prototype building models for annual energy consumption simulation, predicting future trends of building energy demand in different typical city by 2100.