CAJ | 학술논문

以永久收入理论为出发点,文章构建了一个从需求方面解释国际贸易的理论模型,该模型涵盖了当前关于中国外贸顺差的汇率、消费不足、资源禀赋以及投资储蓄差额等四种主要解释.模型指出,预期收入不足是中国外贸顺差形成的根源;汇率对外贸顺差的影响是不确定的;投资机会和金融体系不足扩大了中国外贸顺差.政策建议认为需要完善社会保障体制,健全法制环境,控制通货膨胀,保持汇率平稳.
이영구수입이론위출발점,문장구건료일개종수구방면해석국제무역적이론모형,해모형함개료당전관우중국외무순차적회솔、소비불족、자원품부이급투자저축차액등사충주요해석.모형지출,예기수입불족시중국외무순차형성적근원;회솔대외무순차적영향시불학정적;투자궤회화금융체계불족확대료중국외무순차.정책건의인위수요완선사회보장체제,건전법제배경,공제통화팽창,보지회솔평은.
Based on permanent income theory,from the perspective of demand,this paper constructed a theoretical model which included main explanations on China international trade surplus.And the explanations are exchange rate,insufficient consumption,resource and invest-saving gap.The model pointed out that insufficiency of expected income is the origin of trade surplus.The influence of exchange rate on trade surplus was uncertain.Insufficiency of investing chance and defect of fi?nancial system expanded the trade surplus.At the end,this paper pointed out four suggestions which were improving social se?curity system,developing legal institutions,curbing inflation,and keeping exchange rate smooth and steady.