CAJ | 학술논문

财务困境预警研究,应跳出“唯财务观”的怪圈,将宏观经济因素、行业环境因素等同时纳入财务困境研究可行且必要.文章从事物发展内外因辩证关系的角度重新构建了企业财务困境的发生机理;并从宏观经济因素、行业环境因素、治理与财务结构因素、审计意见类型、财务指标等5个维度建立预警指标.采用Probit模型对2003—2011年度部分上市公司数据进行了实证分析,我们发现:高资产负债率、经济不景气、非清洁审计意见、商品零售价格指数等对财务困境发生具有正向“诊断”作用;而总资产净利率、每股经营活动现金流量、GDP增长变动率、股权结构集中等对企业财务困境的发生具有负向“诊断”作用.
재무곤경예경연구,응도출“유재무관”적괴권,장굉관경제인소、행업배경인소등동시납입재무곤경연구가행차필요.문장종사물발전내외인변증관계적각도중신구건료기업재무곤경적발생궤리;병종굉관경제인소、행업배경인소、치리여재무결구인소、심계의견류형、재무지표등5개유도건립예경지표.채용Probit모형대2003—2011년도부분상시공사수거진행료실증분석,아문발현:고자산부채솔、경제불경기、비청길심계의견、상품령수개격지수등대재무곤경발생구유정향“진단”작용;이총자산정리솔、매고경영활동현금류량、GDP증장변동솔、고권결구집중등대기업재무곤경적발생구유부향“진단”작용.
Financial ratios should not be the only focus of the research on financial distress early-warning.It was possible and necessary to take the factors into consideration such as macroeconomics,industrial environment,etc.In the paper,the mecha?nism of financial distress was reconstructed in terms of dialectic relationship of internal and external,and then the early-warn?ing indicators from 5 dimensions such as macroeconomics,industry environments,governance and financial structure,the type of audit opinion,and financial ratios were established. Finally,the empirical test was done by using the data of some list?ed companies from 2003 to 2011 with Probit model,the conclusions were the following:high debt ratio,downturn economy, non-clean auditing opinion and RPI had a positive“diagnosis”effect on financial distress,whereas ROA,operating cash flow per share,ROC of GDP growth,and concentration of equity structure had a negative“diagnosis”effect on financial dis?tress.