CAJ | 학술논문

我国经济的快速发展为私人汽车提供了巨大的发展空间,对私家车保有量进行科学预测是确定我国公路交通长短期发展规划,解决交通拥堵、能源紧张、环境污染、资源短缺等一系列问题的关键.首先根据我国2000-2011年的私家车保有量的变化,采用均方误差最小的原则选取指数平滑系数,建立二次、三次指数平滑模型,进而利用该模型对我国2012-2016年的汽车保有量进行预测,为使预测结果趋于合理,最后运用相关系数原理进行评价,选择相对理想的预测结果,从而为私家车保有量的相关决策提供参考.
아국경제적쾌속발전위사인기차제공료거대적발전공간,대사가차보유량진행과학예측시학정아국공로교통장단기발전규화,해결교통옹도、능원긴장、배경오염、자원단결등일계렬문제적관건.수선근거아국2000-2011년적사가차보유량적변화,채용균방오차최소적원칙선취지수평활계수,건립이차、삼차지수평활모형,진이이용해모형대아국2012-2016년적기차보유량진행예측,위사예측결과추우합리,최후운용상관계수원리진행평개,선택상대이상적예측결과,종이위사가차보유량적상관결책제공삼고.
The rapid development of economy in our country provides huge development space for private cars. The scientific forecast of private car ownership is the key to the development of China‘s highway traffic short and long term development planning,which is significant for solving a series of problems,such as the traffic congestion,energy crisis,environmental pollution,resource shortage and so on. First of all,according to the change of China’s private car ownership in 2000-2011,using the minimum mean square error principle,this paper selects exponential smoothing coefficient,establishing secondary exponential smoothing model and expo-nential smoothing model for three times. Then the model is used to predict the 2012-2016 car ownership of Chi-na. To make prediction results more reasonable,this paper finally applies the principle of the correlation coeffi-cient to evaluate,selects relative ideal forecast results,thus providing reference for private car ownership deci-sion-making.