CAJ | 학술논문

以NCEP/NCAR的1948?2005年逐月再分析资料为实况场,利用标准化均方根误差、相关系数等方法对BCC_CSM模式模拟中国区域500 hPa不同季节的位势高度场、温度场、相对湿度场、风场等气象要素的能力进行检验.结果表明:1)位势高度场的标准化均方误差在中国区域的不同季节均小于1,对应相关系数均通过显著性水平α=0.05的显著性检验;2)温度场的标准化均方误差在中国区域不同季节均小于1,对应相关系数除了夏季的中国南方外均通过显著性水平α=0.05的显著性检验;3)相对湿度、经向风与纬向风在中国区域夏、秋、冬三个季节的标准化均方根误差都比较小,实况纬向风场与模拟纬向风场全年相关性都比较好,相关系数在中国绝大部分地区能通过显著性水平α=0.05的显著性检验;4)模式模拟出了中国不同地区各个气象要素的年内变化,除中国西南地区的经向风外,各气象要素实况场与模拟场的相关系数均通过水平α=0.05的显著性检验.
이NCEP/NCAR적1948?2005년축월재분석자료위실황장,이용표준화균방근오차、상관계수등방법대BCC_CSM모식모의중국구역500 hPa불동계절적위세고도장、온도장、상대습도장、풍장등기상요소적능력진행검험.결과표명:1)위세고도장적표준화균방오차재중국구역적불동계절균소우1,대응상관계수균통과현저성수평α=0.05적현저성검험;2)온도장적표준화균방오차재중국구역불동계절균소우1,대응상관계수제료하계적중국남방외균통과현저성수평α=0.05적현저성검험;3)상대습도、경향풍여위향풍재중국구역하、추、동삼개계절적표준화균방근오차도비교소,실황위향풍장여모의위향풍장전년상관성도비교호,상관계수재중국절대부분지구능통과현저성수평α=0.05적현저성검험;4)모식모의출료중국불동지구각개기상요소적년내변화,제중국서남지구적경향풍외,각기상요소실황장여모의장적상관계수균통과수평α=0.05적현저성검험.
Taking the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 as the observation object, the abilities of the BCC_CSM model to simulate geopotential height field, temperature field, relative humility field and wind field in different seasons of China were tested by using the standardized RMSE and correlation coe?cient methods. The results show that: 1) The standardized RMSEs of height fields were less than 1 in different seasons in China and the corresponding correlation coe?cients passed the significant test at the level ofα=0.05;2) The standardized RMSEs of temperature fields were less than 1 in different seasons in China and the corresponding correlation coe?cients passed the significant test at the level of α=0.05 except for the southern part of China in summer;3) The standardized RMSEs of relative humidity field, zonal wind and meridional wind were smaller in summer, autumn and winter in China, the correlation coe?cient between the observed zonal wind and the simulative zonal wind of the year was good and the correlation coe?cient passed the significant test of the level of α=0.05 in most parts of China;4) The model significantly simulated the intra-annual variations of each meteorological element in different areas of China and the correlation coe?cients between the observed field and the simulated field of every climatical element passed the significant test of the level ofα=0.05 except for the meridional wind in the southwest part of China.