CAJ | 학술논문

利用英国East Anglia大学CRU高分辨率地面温度格点资料和EOF, REOF及线性趋势等方法,分析了青藏高原地面温度的时空分布特征及近百年来的变化趋势.结果表明:空间一致性是高原气温空间结构的主要特征,除此之外,高原气温在空间分布上还存在东西、南北反相结构.利用方差最大化旋转可将高原气温变化分为高原中部区、西部区、北部区、南部区及东部区.近百年来高原气温处于上升通道,气候倾向率约为0.07?C/10 a,经历了四次冷暖交替的时期:1901?1930年为冷期;1931?1950年为暖期,气温显著升高;1950年开始一直到1980年前后,高原气温总体变化比较平稳;而从1980年至今,高原的气温都处于快速上升的通道.高原气温的变化主要以准60年周期为主,同时还有30年准周期振荡,存在多个突变点.高原各个区域近百年来气温都处于上升状态,青藏高原中部区气候倾向率达0.065?C/10 a,西部区上升趋势最显著,气候倾向率达0.128?C/10 a,北部区为0.108?/10 a,南部区为0.015?/10 a,东部区为0.022?C/10 a,且大部分区域都通过α=0.01的信度检验.各区域有不同的温度变化特征,中部区和北部区相似,而东部区正负交替比较频繁.
이용영국East Anglia대학CRU고분변솔지면온도격점자료화EOF, REOF급선성추세등방법,분석료청장고원지면온도적시공분포특정급근백년래적변화추세.결과표명:공간일치성시고원기온공간결구적주요특정,제차지외,고원기온재공간분포상환존재동서、남북반상결구.이용방차최대화선전가장고원기온변화분위고원중부구、서부구、북부구、남부구급동부구.근백년래고원기온처우상승통도,기후경향솔약위0.07?C/10 a,경력료사차랭난교체적시기:1901?1930년위랭기;1931?1950년위난기,기온현저승고;1950년개시일직도1980년전후,고원기온총체변화비교평은;이종1980년지금,고원적기온도처우쾌속상승적통도.고원기온적변화주요이준60년주기위주,동시환유30년준주기진탕,존재다개돌변점.고원각개구역근백년래기온도처우상승상태,청장고원중부구기후경향솔체0.065?C/10 a,서부구상승추세최현저,기후경향솔체0.128?C/10 a,북부구위0.108?/10 a,남부구위0.015?/10 a,동부구위0.022?C/10 a,차대부분구역도통과α=0.01적신도검험.각구역유불동적온도변화특정,중부구화북부구상사,이동부구정부교체비교빈번.
With the high resolution ground temperature data from the East Anglia Climatic Research Unit University (abbreviation CRU) and by means of EOF, REOF and linear trend analysis methods, Qinghai Tibetan plateau surface temperature with temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and change trends in the recent hundred years were analyzed. The results showed that space consistency was characterized by plateau temperature spatial structure features; in addition, for plateau air temperature distribution in space, there was an north-south reversed structure. With the variance maximizing rotation, the temperature variations could be divided into the central plateau region, western region, northern region, southern region and the eastern region. For nearly a hundred years of rising temperature, the climate tendency rate was about 0.07?C/10 a, undergoing a four alternating cold and warm period: from the 1901 to 1930 cold period; from 1931 to 1950 warm period, there was an obvious increase in temperature; from 1950 until around 1980, plateau temperature changes had been relatively stable in general; and from 1980 to the present, high temperatures has been on the rise at a rapid channel. Plateau air temperature changes occurred mainly in the quasi 60 year period and, at the same time, there were also 30 years of quasi periodic oscillation and a presence of multiple point mutations. In each area in the recent hundred years the temperature has been rising: in the central Qinghai-Tibetan plateau the climate tendency rate was 0.065?C/10 a;the western area increased significantly, with the climate tendency rate of 0.128 ?C/10 a;the rate for the northern area was 0.108?C/10 a, and 0.015?C/10 a for the southern part;the east part was 0.022?C/10 a. Most of the regions passed theα=0.01 reliability test. Of the various regions with different temperature characteristics, the central and northern areas showed similar trends, while the eastern area had more frequent positive and negative alternations.