CAJ | 학술논문

为分析和预测山东省沿海区域土地利用和景观格局变化,该文将景观格局指数作为评价土地利用变化模拟模型的基本指标;基于RS和GIS技术分析2000-2010年土地利用和景观格局的变化特征,并尝试CA-Markov模型预测土地利用变化,发现其在景观格局预测方面的不足,因而探索和提出 Spatial-Markov 模型,该模型不仅适合于土地利用变化模拟,也适合于景观格局过程分析.具体包括:1)基于2000、2005和2010年的Landsat影像进行土地利用分类,分析10 a间土地利用和景观格局的变化特征,表明:耕地面积不断减少,城镇和农村居民点用地不断扩张而占用大量耕地,草地等又不断开垦为耕地;区域景观格局破碎化趋势显著,人为干扰加剧,各种景观类型的分布向均匀化发展;2)基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型,以11个变量、2000和2005年土地利用分类图为基础,模拟的2010年土地利用图与观测值相比较,虽然得到的Kappa系数较高(0.8530),但难以支持对景观格局特征的预测和分析;3)提出Spatial-Markov模型,基于2000和2005年土地利用分类图模拟2010年土地利用,模拟结果的Kappa系数高达0.8872,且景观格局指数也与观测值非常接近,因此,选择该模型预测2015和2020年的土地利用和景观格局;4)预测结果表明,2010-2020年间耕地面积将继续减少,城镇、农村居民点将继续保持快速增长的态势;景观尺度除了分形维数,其他指数保持2000-2010年间的变化趋势,而在类型尺度,除水域和未利用地外,各种景观类型多个景观指数将总体保持原有的变化趋势.该研究可为山东沿海区域土地利用规划提供参考,并为土地利用预测研究提供了一种新的方法.
위분석화예측산동성연해구역토지이용화경관격국변화,해문장경관격국지수작위평개토지이용변화모의모형적기본지표;기우RS화GIS기술분석2000-2010년토지이용화경관격국적변화특정,병상시CA-Markov모형예측토지이용변화,발현기재경관격국예측방면적불족,인이탐색화제출 Spatial-Markov 모형,해모형불부괄합우토지이용변화모의,야괄합우경관격국과정분석.구체포괄:1)기우2000、2005화2010년적Landsat영상진행토지이용분류,분석10 a간토지이용화경관격국적변화특정,표명:경지면적불단감소,성진화농촌거민점용지불단확장이점용대량경지,초지등우불단개은위경지;구역경관격국파쇄화추세현저,인위간우가극,각충경관류형적분포향균균화발전;2)기우Logistic-CA-Markov모형,이11개변량、2000화2005년토지이용분류도위기출,모의적2010년토지이용도여관측치상비교,수연득도적Kappa계수교고(0.8530),단난이지지대경관격국특정적예측화분석;3)제출Spatial-Markov모형,기우2000화2005년토지이용분류도모의2010년토지이용,모의결과적Kappa계수고체0.8872,차경관격국지수야여관측치비상접근,인차,선택해모형예측2015화2020년적토지이용화경관격국;4)예측결과표명,2010-2020년간경지면적장계속감소,성진、농촌거민점장계속보지쾌속증장적태세;경관척도제료분형유수,기타지수보지2000-2010년간적변화추세,이재류형척도,제수역화미이용지외,각충경관류형다개경관지수장총체보지원유적변화추세.해연구가위산동연해구역토지이용규화제공삼고,병위토지이용예측연구제공료일충신적방법.
In this paper, the Spatial-Markov model, which was based on the theory of Markov process and spatial analysis techniques, was proposed to simulate land use change and landscape dynamics. By the Spatial-Markov model, the study area could be divided into numerous lattices and land use change in each lattices was simulated separately by the Markov process model. The outputs of the model include a set of ratio scale images and a nominal scale image. The whole process of the model was fulfilled by compiling programs with AML in ArcGIS 9.3. The coastal area of Shandong province was selected as the case study area. Land use maps were extracted based on Landsat TM/ETM+images captured in 2000, 2005, and 2010 respectively. Firstly, characteristics of land use change and landscape dynamics were analyzed. It showed that, from 2000 to 2010, urban area and rural settlement expanded dramatically by massively occupying farmland, which, in turn, drove grassland reclaimed to farmland. At the landscape level, the landscape fragmentation increased, and both the diversity and evenness of the landscape increased. Secondly, using land use maps in 2000 and 2005, the Spatial-Markov model was developed to simulate the land use map in 2010 at a spatial scale of 500m. At the same time, the CA-Markov model was selected for model comparison, in specific, eleven driving factors were selected and the Logistic regression method was used to create the transitional maps for CA. Both Kappa coefficient and landscape indices were introduced to evaluate and compare the two models. It showed that the Spatial-Markov model not only achieved much higher Kappa coefficient, but also much better landscape indices than the CA-Markov model. Therefore, the Spatial-Markov model was applied to predict land use change and landscape dynamics in the next decade. Moreover, the prediction result shows that, from 2010 to 2020, areas of urban area and rural settlement will go on increasing, while areas of farmland will continue to decline. At the landscape level, all the landscape indices will follow their historical trend except for fractal dimension. As to the landscape indices at the class level, all landscape types will follow the same trend as before except for water and unused land.