CAJ | 학술논문

10~30d延伸期预报是介于天气预报和短期气候预测之间的一个预报期,近年来已成为国际上天气—气候无缝隙预报体系的一个重要发展方向.基于Madden Julian Oscil ation (MJO)为主的大气低频振荡特征,我国和国际上的一些天气—气候预报中心在延伸期预报的研究和应用中取得了一定的成果.从MJO的基本特征出发,基于MJO与天气气候联系的最新研究成果,重点介绍利用MJO开展实时监测和延伸期预报应用进展,主要包括:MJO的延伸期预报;MJO在延伸期强降水、台风、寒潮及灾害预估中的业务应用.最后对MJO在延伸期预报应用中的发展趋势进行了展望.
10~30d연신기예보시개우천기예보화단기기후예측지간적일개예보기,근년래이성위국제상천기—기후무봉극예보체계적일개중요발전방향.기우Madden Julian Oscil ation (MJO)위주적대기저빈진탕특정,아국화국제상적일사천기—기후예보중심재연신기예보적연구화응용중취득료일정적성과.종MJO적기본특정출발,기우MJO여천기기후련계적최신연구성과,중점개소이용MJO개전실시감측화연신기예보응용진전,주요포괄:MJO적연신기예보;MJO재연신기강강수、태풍、한조급재해예고중적업무응용.최후대MJO재연신기예보응용중적발전추세진행료전망.
10—30d extended-range forecast (ERF) is a forecast “seam” between traditional weather forecast and short-term climate prediction. It has become an important research direction for the development of international weather-climate seamless forecast system in the last decades. Some national or international weather-climate forecast centers have made preliminary achievements on ERF research and application based on MJO. In this paper, according to latest studies related to associations between MJO and weather or climate, starting from basic features of MJO, development of MJO monitoring and ERF application are chiefly introduced. The developments mainly include: ERF of MJO and operational application of MJO in ERF of heavy rainfall, typhoon, cold wave and disasters. Finally, this paper discusses the developing trend of ERF based on MJO in the future.