CAJ | 학술논문

利用NCEP再分析资料和NOAA的逐日向外长波辐射(OLR)资料以及福建2010年逐日降水资料,通过对2010年福建省前汛期6月13—27日典型持续性暴雨过程的分析,揭示了持续性暴雨过程的大气低频特征以及持续性暴雨过程发生前的大气低频前兆信号.研究表明:(1)2010年福建前汛期降水具有显著的30~45d左右的变化周期,呈现明显的少雨期和多雨期交替出现的干湿窗口,长达15d的持续性暴雨就是发生在最后一个湿窗口内.(2)持续性暴雨期间中高纬度和低纬的低频系统的配置和变化十分有利于暴雨的长时间维持.南亚高压、副热带高压、乌拉尔山高压、东亚大槽以及来自孟加拉湾和南海的水汽输送的低频变化造就了这次持续时间之长、强度之强皆为历史罕见的强降雨过程.(3)持续性暴雨过程伴随着一次明显的东亚夏季风涌,降水强度与大气低频振荡的强度密切相关,强降水往往出现在对流活动30~60d季节内振荡(ISO)和10~20d准双周振荡(BWO)湿位相叠加的时期.(4)低频系统具有明显的持续性和周期性,及时监测并掌握大气低频前兆信号的变化规律,无疑对后期持续性暴雨过程的延伸期预报具有十分重要的意义.
이용NCEP재분석자료화NOAA적축일향외장파복사(OLR)자료이급복건2010년축일강수자료,통과대2010년복건성전신기6월13—27일전형지속성폭우과정적분석,게시료지속성폭우과정적대기저빈특정이급지속성폭우과정발생전적대기저빈전조신호.연구표명:(1)2010년복건전신기강수구유현저적30~45d좌우적변화주기,정현명현적소우기화다우기교체출현적간습창구,장체15d적지속성폭우취시발생재최후일개습창구내.(2)지속성폭우기간중고위도화저위적저빈계통적배치화변화십분유리우폭우적장시간유지.남아고압、부열대고압、오랍이산고압、동아대조이급래자맹가랍만화남해적수기수송적저빈변화조취료저차지속시간지장、강도지강개위역사한견적강강우과정.(3)지속성폭우과정반수착일차명현적동아하계풍용,강수강도여대기저빈진탕적강도밀절상관,강강수왕왕출현재대류활동30~60d계절내진탕(ISO)화10~20d준쌍주진탕(BWO)습위상첩가적시기.(4)저빈계통구유명현적지속성화주기성,급시감측병장악대기저빈전조신호적변화규률,무의대후기지속성폭우과정적연신기예보구유십분중요적의의.
By using the NCEP reanalysis data and NOAA daily out-going long-wave radiation (OLR) data, and the daily precipitation data in Fujian in 2010, this paper reveals the atmospheric low-frequency characteristics of the persistent heavy rain and atmospheric low-frequency precursor signals before the persistent heavy rain through the analysis of typical persistent heavy rain in Fujian Province during the pre-flood season from June 13th to the 27th in 2010. The study shows that: (1) The precipitation in pre-flood season in Fujian in 2010 has obvious characteristics of low-frequency variation, the significant cycle is about 30—45 days, showing an obvious wet and dry window that is drier and rainy periods alternating, up to 15 days of persistent heavy rains that occurred in the final wet window. (2) During the persistent heavy rain, the configuration and change of the low-frequency system in mid-high latitudes and low latitudes is very conducive to maintaining the long period of heavy rain. The low-frequency variation of the South Asia high, the subtropical high, the blocking high in Ural Mountains, the East Asian trough and moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea created this heavy rainfall process with the duration and strength being rarely seen in history. (3) This persistent heavy rain accompanied by once obvious East Asia monsoon surge, the intensity of the precipitation is closely related to the intensity of the atmospheric low-frequency oscillation. The heavy precipitation often appears in the 30—60 days' intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and 10—20 days' the quasi-biweekly oscillation (BWO) superimposed wet phase. (4) The low-frequency system has significant ongoing and periodic characteristics, timely monitoring and mastering the variation discipline of the atmospheric low-frequency precursory signals. The system has a very important significance for the extended-range forecast of the persistent heavy rain in the future.