CAJ | 학술논문

对月内(延伸期)重要天气过程与气候趋势预测系统(MAPFS 1.1)的框架、预测方法与模块功能、推广应用情况进行了全面的介绍.该系统包含三种强降水过程预测方法模块和一种月降水趋势预测方法模块,目前已在华东区域等10个省市业务单位投入应用或业务试验,初步取得了较为理想的试验效果.上海、江苏、浙江气候中心等10家业务单位用低频图预报的2012年汛期月内强降水过程准确率平均达到67.7%,其中6家单位的准确率超过60%.
대월내(연신기)중요천기과정여기후추세예측계통(MAPFS 1.1)적광가、예측방법여모괴공능、추엄응용정황진행료전면적개소.해계통포함삼충강강수과정예측방법모괴화일충월강수추세예측방법모괴,목전이재화동구역등10개성시업무단위투입응용혹업무시험,초보취득료교위이상적시험효과.상해、강소、절강기후중심등10가업무단위용저빈도예보적2012년신기월내강강수과정준학솔평균체도67.7%,기중6가단위적준학솔초과60%.
This paper introduces the framework, feature and application of extended-range (Monthly) Anomaly and Process Forecast System (MAPFS 1.1) consisting of three precipitation process forecast modules (i.e., the low-frequent map, anomaly similarity and 150d cycle method modules) as well as the EOF-iteration downscaling module for monthly precipitation anomaly. Up to now, MAPFS 1.1 has been used in operation or in provisional operation in the climate centers of ten provinces or cities in China. The results indicate that extended-range (10-30d) heavy rainfall prediction accuracy from ten centers during the rain season of 2012 is, on average, up to 67.7 %, and particularly that of six centers is larger than 60 %.