CAJ | 학술논문

雨季开始期的早晚历来是云南天气气候预测中的一个重要课题,特别是在近年来云南春季和初夏极端干旱事件频频发生的情况下,以及在社会和政府决策需提前预知雨季来临早迟的“刚性”需求下,对“雨季开始期”的延伸期预测显得极为迫切.为此,在应用MJO活动规律开展云南冬半年延伸期降水预测试验的基础上,结合前期对“热带低频振荡与云南雨季关系”的研究成果开展了本次“云南雨季开始期延伸期预测试验”,并进行了认真的检验.通过检验,认为:(1)在预测中可根据MJO活动中心位置对应的影响云南水汽输送的干、湿窗口期,较好地预测延伸期时段内云南的降水趋势;(2)前期研究发现了影响云南多雨年、少雨年的对流活动关键区,此关键区春季前兆信号指数对云南雨季开始期的预测是有效的.因此,综合应用MJO移动规律和关键区前兆信号开展云南雨季开始期的预测是提高预测能力的一种有效途径.
우계개시기적조만력래시운남천기기후예측중적일개중요과제,특별시재근년래운남춘계화초하겁단간한사건빈빈발생적정황하,이급재사회화정부결책수제전예지우계래림조지적“강성”수구하,대“우계개시기”적연신기예측현득겁위박절.위차,재응용MJO활동규률개전운남동반년연신기강수예측시험적기출상,결합전기대“열대저빈진탕여운남우계관계”적연구성과개전료본차“운남우계개시기연신기예측시험”,병진행료인진적검험.통과검험,인위:(1)재예측중가근거MJO활동중심위치대응적영향운남수기수송적간、습창구기,교호지예측연신기시단내운남적강수추세;(2)전기연구발현료영향운남다우년、소우년적대류활동관건구,차관건구춘계전조신호지수대운남우계개시기적예측시유효적.인차,종합응용MJO이동규률화관건구전조신호개전운남우계개시기적예측시제고예측능력적일충유효도경.
When the rainy season begins is always a significant issue in Yunnan's forecast of weather and climate. The extended-range forecast for the beginning date of rainy season is urgent and necessary, especially in the case of extreme droughts in Spring and early Summer in Yunnan occurring frequently for the past few years. Thus, based on doing extended-range forecast of precipitation through the winter half-year in Yunnan using the patterns of MJO activity, and combined with early research findings about the relationship of the tropical low-frequency to the rainy season in Yunnan, the extended-range forecast for the beginning date of the rainy season has been fully studied and examined. The results suggest the points below: (1) The precipitation trends can be forecasted by the wet and dry windows phase that would impact water vapor transportation of Yunnan which corresponds to the position of the action center of MJO. (2) In our previous research we found some key areas which had exercised an influnce on the convection of the wet or dry years in Yunnan. The index of spring’s precursory signal in the key areas is effective to forecast the beginning of the rainy season. Thus, using both MJO moving regularity and precursory signal in the key areas is an effective way to improve prediction of the beginning date of the rainy season.