CAJ | 학술논문

利用华南一次强降水过程,通过雷达回波反演的云雨水及模式背景场的水汽和根据雨水修订的水汽场对 GRAPES 模式初始场通过 Nuding 技术进行调整,试图改善模式的临近预报.模拟结果对比发现,模式初始场通过 Nudging 技术只订正云水、雨水及水汽场2种情形,对模式雷达回波的临近预报效果都有一定的改善,其中前者对0~3 h 的临近预报效果改善明显,而后者对0~6 h 的预报效果都有所改善,且后者前3 h 的改善效果优于前者.对比模式初始场通过 Nuding 技术订正修订前后的水汽场的预报效果发现,修订后的水汽场的临近预报效果优于修订前的,尤其4~6 h 的差异较明显.分析原因发现,模式初始场中水汽场的修订,尤其是饱和水汽的修订,对模式预报的水汽场有明显影响,从而影响到了环流场,改善了模式的雷达回波和降水的预报.
이용화남일차강강수과정,통과뢰체회파반연적운우수급모식배경장적수기화근거우수수정적수기장대 GRAPES 모식초시장통과 Nuding 기술진행조정,시도개선모식적림근예보.모의결과대비발현,모식초시장통과 Nudging 기술지정정운수、우수급수기장2충정형,대모식뢰체회파적림근예보효과도유일정적개선,기중전자대0~3 h 적림근예보효과개선명현,이후자대0~6 h 적예보효과도유소개선,차후자전3 h 적개선효과우우전자.대비모식초시장통과 Nuding 기술정정수정전후적수기장적예보효과발현,수정후적수기장적림근예보효과우우수정전적,우기4~6 h 적차이교명현.분석원인발현,모식초시장중수기장적수정,우기시포화수기적수정,대모식예보적수기장유명현영향,종이영향도료배류장,개선료모식적뢰체회파화강수적예보.
In this study, we attempted to improve the nowcasting of GRAPES model by adjusting the model initial field through modifying the cloud water, rain water and vapor as well as revising vapor following rain water. The results show that the model nowcasting is improved when only the cloud water and rain water are modified or all of the cloud water, rain water and vapor are modified in the initial field. The forecasting of the former (latter) approach during 0 to 3 (0 to 6) hours is significantly improved. Furthermore, for the forecast for 0 to 3 hours, the latter approach is better than the former. Compared with the forecasting results for which the vapor of the model initial field is modified by the background vapor with those by the revised vapor, the nowcasting of the revised vapor is much better than that of background vapor. The reasons indicate when the vapor is adjusted in the model initial field, especially when the saturated vapor is considered, the forecasting of the vapor field is significantly affected. The changed vapor fields influence the circulation, which in turn improves the model forecasting of radar reflectivity and rainfall.