CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用本底趋势线理论,选取1985-2009年欧美入境中国客流量统计数据,对25年来欧美入境中国旅游成长过程的周期波动分趋势项、周期项和随机项进行综合模拟,并对二者进行了比较分析,结果发现:(1)欧美入境中国旅游成长长期趋势均表现为直线成长趋势,但欧洲增长速度明显快于美国.(2)欧美入境中国旅游的长周期均呈现增振幅正弦变化,短周期呈现减振幅正弦波动变化特征,欧洲长周期波动和振幅大于美国,欧洲经历的波动周期小于美国.短周期波动振幅大于美国,但周期长度短于美国.(3)1985年以来欧美入境中国旅游受到四次危机事件影响存在差异,1989风波和2008年全球金融危机对欧美入境中国旅游的损失量更大,2003年 SARS 次之,1998亚洲金融危机影响最小,由于欧洲入境旅游基数较大,所以各类事件造成的损失量均大于美国.
본문운용본저추세선이론,선취1985-2009년구미입경중국객류량통계수거,대25년래구미입경중국여유성장과정적주기파동분추세항、주기항화수궤항진행종합모의,병대이자진행료비교분석,결과발현:(1)구미입경중국여유성장장기추세균표현위직선성장추세,단구주증장속도명현쾌우미국.(2)구미입경중국여유적장주기균정현증진폭정현변화,단주기정현감진폭정현파동변화특정,구주장주기파동화진폭대우미국,구주경력적파동주기소우미국.단주기파동진폭대우미국,단주기장도단우미국.(3)1985년이래구미입경중국여유수도사차위궤사건영향존재차이,1989풍파화2008년전구금융위궤대구미입경중국여유적손실량경대,2003년 SARS 차지,1998아주금융위궤영향최소,유우구주입경여유기수교대,소이각류사건조성적손실량균대우미국.
Based on China’s annual visitor arrival statistic data(1985-2009) from Eurpoe and America, the natural trend curve theory is employed to make analysis of china’s tourism growth process and growth cycle in terms of trend term, periodic items and ran-dom items which is followed by a comparative analysis. The result shows that: (1) The long-term growth trend of inbound tourism from Europe and America shows linear growth pattern, but Europe grew significantly faster than the United States. (2) Both Eu-ropean and American growth trend is featured by increasing amplitude sinusoidal in the long term periodic and reduced amplitude sinusoidal in the short term periodic but they differ from each other in growth form, period and amplitude fluctuations. The long-period fluctuations and the amplitude of Europe are longer than the United States, the wave pe-riod Europe experienced is less than the United States. The short-period fluctuations of amplitude are longer than the United States, but shorter in the cycle length. (3) Since 1985, China’s inbound tourism from Europe and America have been affected by four cri-sis events, The economic losses caused by the “political incidence in 1989”and“global financial crisis in 2008”are greater than those caused by“ SARS in 2003”and“1998 Asian financial crisis”. And tourism growth from Europe suffered more than that from America because the former has a larger tourism base than the latter.