CAJ | 학술논문

在水电站梯级建设条件下,上游电站控制洪水下泄流量可减少下游施工导流风险、降低工程投资,但同时增加了上游电站的防洪风险和控泄成本.为有效地均衡上下游风险,合理分配二者利益,本文从梯级系统总体角度出发,通过对控泄参与双方控泄成本和效益的货币化,分析风险承担方和收益方在达成风险补偿共识过程中的博弈行为,建立基于激励与参与约束下的风险补偿模型,选择最优控泄流量并预计该流量下的补偿结果,实现上游控泄条件下施工导流风险补偿决策的优化.最后通过算例分析,验证该风险补偿模型是可行的、有效的.
재수전참제급건설조건하,상유전참공제홍수하설류량가감소하유시공도류풍험、강저공정투자,단동시증가료상유전참적방홍풍험화공설성본.위유효지균형상하유풍험,합리분배이자이익,본문종제급계통총체각도출발,통과대공설삼여쌍방공설성본화효익적화폐화,분석풍험승담방화수익방재체성풍험보상공식과정중적박혁행위,건립기우격려여삼여약속하적풍험보상모형,선택최우공설류량병예계해류량하적보상결과,실현상유공설조건하시공도류풍험보상결책적우화.최후통과산례분석,험증해풍험보상모형시가행적、유효적.
Under the condition of cascade hydropower stations development, upstream flow control can re?duce the downstream diversion risk and investment in project, but meanwhile increase flood risk and flow control cost of the upstream power station. In order to effectively balance the risk and properly distribute the interest between upper and downstream,upstream flow control cost and benefit of participants were mon?etized from the perspective of the whole cascade system, the behaviors of risk undertaker and beneficiary were analyzed in the process of reaching a consensus, which helps to build a risk compensation model based on incentive and restraint, choose optimal releasing discharge and estimate corresponding compensa?tion result. This model can realize the diversion risk compensation decision optimization on condition of up?stream flow control. Finally, a numerical example shows that the risk compensation method is feasible and effective.