CAJ | 학술논문

指出了中长期负荷预测是一个时变不稳定系统,受到许多定性语言值的影响.阐述了二维云模型有效地将概念的定性值与数字的定量值进行自然转换,在云理论的基础上,实现概念计算的云计算方法和云模型与不确定推理,给出了计算的逻辑描述,将计算过程抽象成为推理过程;分析了计算云化的过程;并且采用不确定推理的方法,得出了云的计算过程;将云化计算与实际相结合运用于中长期负荷预测中,并使预测结果的误差控制在3%以内.
지출료중장기부하예측시일개시변불은정계통,수도허다정성어언치적영향.천술료이유운모형유효지장개념적정성치여수자적정량치진행자연전환,재운이론적기출상,실현개념계산적운계산방법화운모형여불학정추리,급출료계산적라집묘술,장계산과정추상성위추리과정;분석료계산운화적과정;병차채용불학정추리적방법,득출료운적계산과정;장운화계산여실제상결합운용우중장기부하예측중,병사예측결과적오차공제재3%이내.
Mid-long-term load forecasting is an unstable time-varying system which is affected by a number of qualitative linguistic values. Two-dimensional cloud model is a powerful tool to convert between numerical quantitative value and conceptual qualitative value. Based on cloud theory,this paper presents a cloud computing method to realize conceptual computing. A cloud model and uncertain interference are introduced. The logic description is proposed to convert computing process to interference process. The process of computing cloudization is analyzed and the process of cloud computing through uncertain interference method is proposed. Cloud computing is applied in the actual mid-long-term load forecast,which controls the error of forecasted result to be lower than 3%.