CAJ | 학술논문

概率潮流计算为电力规划中分析电力系统中不确定因素对电网运行安全性与经济性影响提供了有效工具,现有的概率潮流计算中,仅考虑到负荷的不确定性,而往往忽略系统调度运行对潮流的控制作用,因而难以反映实际潮流的概率分布.基于运行模拟评估了江苏电网2020年500 kV 电网过江断面概率潮流,分别建立了时序负荷模型、间歇性能源随机运行模拟、检修计划模型以及考虑线路潮流约束的机组组合模型,通过对系统逐日运行模拟得到线路时序潮流,进而通过统计得到概率潮流.提出的方法相对于传统概率潮流模型而言,更详细地考虑了机组发电计划以及系统运行对线路潮流的影响,为规划层面评价电网的安全性与经济性提供了有力支撑.
개솔조류계산위전력규화중분석전력계통중불학정인소대전망운행안전성여경제성영향제공료유효공구,현유적개솔조류계산중,부고필도부하적불학정성,이왕왕홀략계통조도운행대조류적공제작용,인이난이반영실제조류적개솔분포.기우운행모의평고료강소전망2020년500 kV 전망과강단면개솔조류,분별건립료시서부하모형、간헐성능원수궤운행모의、검수계화모형이급고필선로조류약속적궤조조합모형,통과대계통축일운행모의득도선로시서조류,진이통과통계득도개솔조류.제출적방법상대우전통개솔조류모형이언,경상세지고필료궤조발전계화이급계통운행대선로조류적영향,위규화층면평개전망적안전성여경제성제공료유력지탱.
Probabilistic power flow calculation provides an effective tool in evaluating the impact of the uncertain factors of power system on the security and economy of system operation. The models of existing probabilistic power flow only take into account the uncertainty of load and ignore the dispatching of system operation which majorly determines the power flow. This may lead to significant deviation from the realistic probability distribution of power flow. This paper carries out an empirical analysis on the probabilistic load flow of 500 kV transmission lines across the Yangzi river of Jiangsu power grid in 2020. The paper describes in detail the load time series model, intermittent energy operation simulation model, maintenance scheduling model and unit commitment model considering grid constraint respectively. The probabilistic power flow is obtained through statistics after calculating the time series power flow by daily system operation simulation. Compared with the conventional probabilistic load flow model, the proposed method considers the impact of generator scheduling and system operation on the power flow in a more practical way, which provides strong support for the security and economy assessment of power grid under planning.