CAJ | 학술논문

选取1992—2009年中国向17个主要贸易伙伴国梨出口量的面板数据,基于引力模型分析并测算我国梨出口决定因素与贸易潜力,为提高梨出口数量、优化梨出口结构提供依据.研究结果表明,梨产量、进出口国人均GDP、距离等变量对我国梨出口产生重要影响;梨生产成本的攀升严重制约了出口量的增加;我国与主要贸易伙伴国人均收入的缩小有利于梨出口量的增加;我国梨出口在发达国家市场贸易不足,在发展中国家市场上贸易过度.
선취1992—2009년중국향17개주요무역화반국리출구량적면판수거,기우인력모형분석병측산아국리출구결정인소여무역잠력,위제고리출구수량、우화리출구결구제공의거.연구결과표명,리산량、진출구국인균GDP、거리등변량대아국리출구산생중요영향;리생산성본적반승엄중제약료출구량적증가;아국여주요무역화반국인균수입적축소유리우리출구량적증가;아국리출구재발체국가시장무역불족,재발전중국가시장상무역과도.
@@@@Based on gravity model, the paper uses Chinese 17 main trading partners’ panel data of pear trade from 1992 to 2009 to conduct empirical study of influencing factors and estimate potential for pear exports, and put forward reasonable proposals to enhance the export volume and optimize the layout of pear exporting market.The results show that: pear production, per-capita GDP between trade partners and distance has an important impact on exporting;rapid increase in cost of production severely restricted the exports; the narrowing of the per-capita GDP between partners will create more exports; Chinese pears have more potential on the market of developed countries .