经济研究导刊
經濟研究導刊
경제연구도간
ECONOMIC RESEARCH GUIDE
2013年
4期
157-160
,共4页
电力消费%经济增长%辽宁%协整%H-P 滤波
電力消費%經濟增長%遼寧%協整%H-P 濾波
전력소비%경제증장%료녕%협정%H-P 려파
electricity consumption%economical growth%Liaoning%cointegration%H-P filter
辽宁自改革开放以来经济高速发展,电力消费逐年上升,为正确认识经济发展与电力消费之间的关系,明确电力发展方向,运用协整理论对辽宁1978—2010年间经济发展与电力消费的关系进行实例研究,验证辽宁省国民生产总值 GDP(Gross Domestic Product)与电力消费之间存在长期协整关系,得出短期内存在从电力消费到 GDP 增长的单向 Granger 因,说明电力缺乏将造成经济发展停滞,“经济发展,电力先行”政策将长期坚持;并采用 H-P 滤波技术得出 GDP 与电力消费的趋势成分和波动成分,验证二者存在协整关系,并得出辽宁电力消费与经济发展存在趋同的发展趋势和周期性波动关系的结论,建设性提出未来辽宁电力发展的方向.
遼寧自改革開放以來經濟高速髮展,電力消費逐年上升,為正確認識經濟髮展與電力消費之間的關繫,明確電力髮展方嚮,運用協整理論對遼寧1978—2010年間經濟髮展與電力消費的關繫進行實例研究,驗證遼寧省國民生產總值 GDP(Gross Domestic Product)與電力消費之間存在長期協整關繫,得齣短期內存在從電力消費到 GDP 增長的單嚮 Granger 因,說明電力缺乏將造成經濟髮展停滯,“經濟髮展,電力先行”政策將長期堅持;併採用 H-P 濾波技術得齣 GDP 與電力消費的趨勢成分和波動成分,驗證二者存在協整關繫,併得齣遼寧電力消費與經濟髮展存在趨同的髮展趨勢和週期性波動關繫的結論,建設性提齣未來遼寧電力髮展的方嚮.
료녕자개혁개방이래경제고속발전,전력소비축년상승,위정학인식경제발전여전력소비지간적관계,명학전력발전방향,운용협정이론대료녕1978—2010년간경제발전여전력소비적관계진행실례연구,험증요녕성국민생산총치 GDP(Gross Domestic Product)여전력소비지간존재장기협정관계,득출단기내존재종전력소비도 GDP 증장적단향 Granger 인,설명전력결핍장조성경제발전정체,“경제발전,전력선행”정책장장기견지;병채용 H-P 려파기술득출 GDP 여전력소비적추세성분화파동성분,험증이자존재협정관계,병득출료녕전력소비여경제발전존재추동적발전추세화주기성파동관계적결론,건설성제출미래료녕전력발전적방향.
Liaoning economical and electricity consumption sustain growth since reformation and opening.This text is researched for the correct relationship of economical growth and electricity consumption to guide the direction of electricity construction development.Based on cointegration theory research the relationship of Liaoning during the period from 1978 to 2010 economical growth with electricity consumption through example,.First,it verifies the existence of long-term cointegration between Liaoning GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and electricity consumption,and short-term unindirectional Granger causality from electricity consumption to economical growth,it shows that the lack of electricity power will block the economical growth,and the policy of “Economic development,Electric power construction first” will carry out for a long time.Second,the H.P filter is applied to get the trend component and cycle component of GDP and electricity consumption,verify the existence of cointegration relationship,and indicate the convergence trend and periodic fluctuation of Liaoning GDP and electricity consumption.
