CAJ | 학술논문

本文以2000-2011年我国旅游总收入为样本区间,在回归预测、指数预测与二次移动平均预测三种单项预测方法的基础上,以预测误差平方和最小为准则,建立IOWA算子组合预测模型.对该模型的预测有效度进评价结果表明该组合预测模型能有效提高预测精度.
본문이2000-2011년아국여유총수입위양본구간,재회귀예측、지수예측여이차이동평균예측삼충단항예측방법적기출상,이예측오차평방화최소위준칙,건립IOWA산자조합예측모형.대해모형적예측유효도진평개결과표명해조합예측모형능유효제고예측정도.
In this paper,data from 2000 to 2011of total tourism revenue as the sample period,based on regression forecast, the index to predict and the secondary moving average forecast of three single forecasting method,and minimizing Squared prediction error and as a criterion,build the IOWA Operator combination forecasting model. The validity of the predictions of the model into the results of the evaluation show that the combination forecasting model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.