CAJ | 학술논문

本文试图揭示中国经济发展与环境污染之间的空间扩散关系.根据Stem(2002)的模型,以SO2排放量来表征环境污染水平,利用MATLAB软件对2000-2010年间中国30个省、直辖市及自治区(西藏由于数据不全)的PANEL DATA进行面板回归分析,回归结果表明: SO2污染物质的排放与经济发展存在空间自相关,经济规模扩大、工业产业比重提高和贸易顺差会加剧我国环境污染,生产技术创新会降低我国环境污染,并估算了这四个要素对环境质量影响的各自实际贡献率.这一实证结果对于完善我国节能减排长效机制和制定相关环境保护政策、促进经济可持续发展战略具有重要的指导意义.
본문시도게시중국경제발전여배경오염지간적공간확산관계.근거Stem(2002)적모형,이SO2배방량래표정배경오염수평,이용MATLAB연건대2000-2010년간중국30개성、직할시급자치구(서장유우수거불전)적PANEL DATA진행면판회귀분석,회귀결과표명: SO2오염물질적배방여경제발전존재공간자상관,경제규모확대、공업산업비중제고화무역순차회가극아국배경오염,생산기술창신회강저아국배경오염,병고산료저사개요소대배경질량영향적각자실제공헌솔.저일실증결과대우완선아국절능감배장효궤제화제정상관배경보호정책、촉진경제가지속발전전략구유중요적지도의의.
This paper tries to disclose the relationship of economic development and environment. Deriving from Stern Model, this paper takes SO2 emission as an environmental pollution index and applies regression analysis to 30 provinces & municipal cities'panel data except Tibet in our country from 2000 to 2010. The results show that the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve takes place at income and pollution levels above those corresponding to the social optimum. We find that enlargement of economic scale, changes of industrial structure and gross value of import&export can add environmental pollution while renovation and generalization of environmental protection technology reduce environmental pollution. And factual contribution rates of the four factors are estimated respectively. This result urges a more effective policy orientation on sustainable development strategy formulation.