CAJ | 학술논문

目前,国内外许多学者都认为产业结构变迁与经济增长之间有着密切的关系,国内学者还用实证分析探讨了改革开放以来我国产业结构调整对经济增长的推动作用.在此,本文主要通过运用VAR模型、协整分析、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解的动态经济计量分析方法,对山东省1978-2010年产业结构变迁与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,山东省产业结构变迁与实际经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡协同关系,并且这种均衡协同关系具有反向修正机制.根据脉冲响应函数分析,山东省产值结构的冲击对经济增长具有持续明显的反向冲击效应;就业结构的冲击对经济增长有持续显著的正向冲击效应,并且这种影响需要一定时间才能表现出来.可见,通过产业结构调整是可以推动山东经济持续增长的.
목전,국내외허다학자도인위산업결구변천여경제증장지간유착밀절적관계,국내학자환용실증분석탐토료개혁개방이래아국산업결구조정대경제증장적추동작용.재차,본문주요통과운용VAR모형、협정분석、향량오차수정모형、맥충향응함수급방차분해적동태경제계량분석방법,대산동성1978-2010년산업결구변천여경제증장지간적동태관계진행료실증연구.연구결과표명,산동성산업결구변천여실제경제증장지간존재착장기은정적균형협동관계,병차저충균형협동관계구유반향수정궤제.근거맥충향응함수분석,산동성산치결구적충격대경제증장구유지속명현적반향충격효응;취업결구적충격대경제증장유지속현저적정향충격효응,병차저충영향수요일정시간재능표현출래.가견,통과산업결구조정시가이추동산동경제지속증장적.
At present, many domestic and foreign scholars believe that there is a close relation between industrial structure change and economic growth, since domestic scholars also used the empirical analysis of China's reform and opening up the adjustment of in-dustrial structure promotion effect to economy growth. In the paper, there is an empirical study on industrial structure change and Shan-dong Province's economic growth from 1978 to 2010 with a dynamic econometric analysis method based on VAR model, cointegration analysis, vector error correction model, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The empirical analysis concludes: there is a stable equilibrium relation between Shandong Province's industrial structure change and real economic growth in the long run, and there is a reverse revision mechanism in the relation. According to the impulse response function analysis, Shandong Province's produc-tion value structure has a continuous and explicit reverse shock effect on economic growth. The employment structure has a continuous and significant positive shock effect on economic growth, and this influence will take some time to show. Therefore, through the adjust-ment of industrial structure is to promote sustained economic growth of Shandong.