CAJ | 학술논문

根据永定河流域石匣里站、响水堡站和官厅水库站1956年-2003年的年径流资料,应用M ann2kendal 检验法、Pettitt检验法、滑动 T 检验和小波分析法等方法分析了永定河流域年径流量的趋势性、周期性及突变特征,并从气候变化及人类活动两方面分析其影响因素.结果表明永定河流域年径流量一直处于显著下降趋势中,存在27(28)年的第一主周期和20(21)年的第二主周期;1982年-1983年径流量发生突变,突变前后变化较大.径流量变化的主要影响因素是人类活动,如土地利用、闸坝工程建设以及地下水过度开采等;气候变化对径流量也有一定的影响.
근거영정하류역석갑리참、향수보참화관청수고참1956년-2003년적년경류자료,응용M ann2kendal 검험법、Pettitt검험법、활동 T 검험화소파분석법등방법분석료영정하류역년경류량적추세성、주기성급돌변특정,병종기후변화급인류활동량방면분석기영향인소.결과표명영정하류역년경류량일직처우현저하강추세중,존재27(28)년적제일주주기화20(21)년적제이주주기;1982년-1983년경류량발생돌변,돌변전후변화교대.경류량변화적주요영향인소시인류활동,여토지이용、갑패공정건설이급지하수과도개채등;기후변화대경류량야유일정적영향.
@@@@The Mann2kendall test, Pettitt test, Moving2T test, and Wavelet analysis were applied to analyze the trend, periodicit y, and mutation of annual runoff in the Yongding River Basin according to the annual runoff data at the Shixiali, Xiangshuibao, and Guanting reservoir stations from 1956 to 2003, and the influencing factors w ere also discussed from the aspects of climat e change and human activit ies. The results show ed that ( 1) the annual runoff in the Yonding River Basin decreases significant ly from 1956 to 2003, and 27( 28) is the first major period while 20( 21) is the second major period;and ( 2) the annual runoff varies abruptly in 198221983. The variation of runoff was mainly caused by human activities, such as land utilization, gate dam construction, and groundwater overexploitation. Meanw hile, climate change has also effects on the variation of runoff to some extent.