CAJ | 학술논문

利用客观统计方法,对2009—2012年新疆15个地州首府城市最高最低温度预报进行检验.结果表明:(1)15个站最高温度预报准确率高于最低温度,最高最低温度的预报准确率均呈逐年上升趋势.(2)最高最低温度预报准确率随预报时效的延长而降低,克拉玛依、吐鲁番、和田、阿图什、喀什和哈密6个站24、48、72 h预报准确率都高于平均值.(3)温度预报夏秋季好于冬春季,其中最高温度预报夏季最好,冬季最差;最低温度预报秋季最好,春季最差.(4)2012年冬季,15个站预报员主观预报与中央台指导预报的最高最低温度SST平均值基本相同,正负技巧的站点数持平,但站点差异比较大.克拉玛依、阿图什温度预报准确率高于中央台指导预报,且正技巧较高;阿勒泰、阿克苏预报准确率低于中央台指导预报,且负技巧较大.
이용객관통계방법,대2009—2012년신강15개지주수부성시최고최저온도예보진행검험.결과표명:(1)15개참최고온도예보준학솔고우최저온도,최고최저온도적예보준학솔균정축년상승추세.(2)최고최저온도예보준학솔수예보시효적연장이강저,극랍마의、토로번、화전、아도십、객십화합밀6개참24、48、72 h예보준학솔도고우평균치.(3)온도예보하추계호우동춘계,기중최고온도예보하계최호,동계최차;최저온도예보추계최호,춘계최차.(4)2012년동계,15개참예보원주관예보여중앙태지도예보적최고최저온도SST평균치기본상동,정부기교적참점수지평,단참점차이비교대.극랍마의、아도십온도예보준학솔고우중앙태지도예보,차정기교교고;아륵태、아극소예보준학솔저우중앙태지도예보,차부기교교대.
The highest and lowest temperature forecast at 15 cities in Xinjiang was verified by use of the statistical methods. The results showed as follows.(1)The highest temperature forecast accuracy was higher than the lowest temperature and both was rising annually.(2)The forecast accuracy reduced along with extended forecast period. The forecast accuracy of six stations, including Kelamayi, Turpan, Hetian, Atushi, Kashgar and Hami ,was higher than the average for 24,48,72 hour forecast period.(3)The temperature forecast in summer and autumn was generally better than in winter and spring, the highest temperature forecast was the best in summer and the worst in winter, the lowest temperature forecast was the best in autumn and the worst in spring.(4) The average SST of forecasters subjective forecast was the same as the guidance forecast of China Meteorological Observatory (CMO) in winter of 2012. In contrast to the temperature forecast accuracy of CMO,Kelamayi and Atushi was higher,but Akesu and Aletai was lower.