CAJ | 학술논문

应用常规观测资料、自动气象站观测资料、天气图、物理量场和耘悦、栽圆员猿预报产品等,对2011年春季新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州(简称巴州)一次历史同期罕见的局地暴雪天气过程进行分析.结果表明,伊朗和乌拉尔山高压脊同位相叠加是本次天气的主导系统;500 hPa横槽、850 hPa中尺度辐合的配合是影响系统;地面气温在0益以下,850 hPa温度在-5益左右,构成了本次暴雪的有利物理条件;垂直环流增强、高低空急流的耦合作用,为暴雪提供动力条件.数值预报对30皂皂降水漏报,对暴雪预报造成一定难度;850 hPa温度与地面温度差值不稳定,影响降水相态预报,暴雪预报是本次预报的难点.通过分析得到了春季暴雪、强降温天气的预报指标.由于春季在新疆巴州出现暴雪天气过程极其罕见,分析此次暴雪天气过程,对提高预报员对此类罕见天气的认识和把握大有帮助.
응용상규관측자료、자동기상참관측자료、천기도、물리량장화운열、재원원원예보산품등,대2011년춘계신강파음곽릉몽고자치주(간칭파주)일차역사동기한견적국지폭설천기과정진행분석.결과표명,이랑화오랍이산고압척동위상첩가시본차천기적주도계통;500 hPa횡조、850 hPa중척도복합적배합시영향계통;지면기온재0익이하,850 hPa온도재-5익좌우,구성료본차폭설적유리물리조건;수직배류증강、고저공급류적우합작용,위폭설제공동력조건.수치예보대30조조강수루보,대폭설예보조성일정난도;850 hPa온도여지면온도차치불은정,영향강수상태예보,폭설예보시본차예보적난점.통과분석득도료춘계폭설、강강온천기적예보지표.유우춘계재신강파주출현폭설천기과정겁기한견,분석차차폭설천기과정,대제고예보원대차류한견천기적인식화파악대유방조.
Employing conventional observation,automatic weather station observation,weather charts, physical quantitive fields and EC,T213 forecast products at Baingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture in Xinjiang during the spring of 2011,this study analyzed a rarely-occurred local snowstorm episode.The results showed that the same phase superposition of Iran and Ural mountain ridges became the dominant weather system with the influence system of 500 hPa transverse trough of low pressure and 850 hPa mesoscale convergence;the surface temperature below 0℃ and the temperature of 850 hPa about -5℃ constituted the snowstorm advantageous physical conditions;vertical circulation enhanced jetstream coupling effect and provided dynamical condition for the snowstorm. Numerical prediction of 30 mm precipitation omission caused certain difficulty to snowstorm forecast;as the difference between 850 hPa and surface temperature was not stable,the accuracy of precipitation phase prediction was influenced leading to the difficulty of forecasting the snowstorm. Because snowstorm process is rarely occurred in spring at Bazhou in Xinjiang,the analysis of the spring snow and freezing weather forecast index will help to improve the understanding and forecast of the local weather.